British author reports Israel’s strategic failures.
David Hirst, a British writer and analyst at the Middle East Eye, analyzes Israel’s recent attack on Iran and its failure to achieve its strategic goals in an article titled “Israel’s Failure to Contain Iran Shows It Can No Longer Dictate the Regional Order.”
Comparing the attack to the Luftwaffe’s bombing of Coventry in 1940, Hirst argues that Israel, like Nazi Germany at the time, failed to achieve a decisive victory despite initial success and instead faced unexpected Iranian resistance that weakened Israel’s regional position.
He believes that the defeat demonstrates the limits of Israel’s power and its dependence on American support, while Iran has challenged the Israeli-dominated regional order with its flexibility.
Hirst notes that Israel failed to achieve three main goals in its 12-day attack: destroying Iran’s nuclear program, eliminating its ballistic missile capability, and overthrowing the ruling regime.
Contrary to Donald Trump’s claim of “total destruction” of Iran’s nuclear program, a CNN report, citing a US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, shows that the attacks only set back Iran’s nuclear program by several months, as Iran moved centrifuges to secure locations and the location of more than 400 kilograms of enriched uranium remains unknown.
Iran’s missile capability also remained intact, and its missiles inflicted significant damage on Israeli infrastructure, including an oil refinery and a power plant, which, according to Hearst, was more damaging in 12 days than two years of Hamas attacks or months of fighting with Hezbollah. The Iranian regime was also not only not toppled, but also strengthened its internal solidarity by stirring up nationalist anger.
Using a historical analogy to the Coventry bombing, Hirst shows that just as Britain survived the attack by moving production to secret factories and strengthening national resolve, Iran showed resilience by quickly replacing key personnel and continuing missile attacks.
He predicts that Iran will resume uranium enrichment and missile production within months, contrary to US claims. The Iranian missile attacks, even if intercepted, put Israel on the defensive, sent the population into shelters and used up expensive stocks of Arrow missiles, putting an additional strain on the Israeli economy after 20 months of conflict.
The role of the US and Donald Trump in the conflict, Hirst sees as decisive but destructive for Israel. Trump initially denied US involvement, but with the initial success of the attack, he claimed that US technology was the key to victory.