Stratfor Think Tank: Türkiye is changing its policy towards Iraq.
In a report on Turkey’s actions in Iraq, the American research institute Stratfor Worldview noted the country’s increasing influence in different structures at the same time as what it called the decline in the presence and influence of the United States and Iran in Iraq.
The report states: Turkey is changing its policy towards Iraq, from a purely security approach to a model that focuses on economic integration and infrastructure development.
This change of direction is aimed at strengthening Ankara’s regional influence, especially in a situation where Iran’s power is declining and the presence of the United States is gradually receding.
According to Iraqi Oil Ministry officials on July 21, Turkey has proposed a new agreement to Baghdad that would expand the scope of the 1973 “Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Agreement” beyond oil to include natural gas, petrochemicals, and electricity. The move came at the same time as Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decree ending the current agreement in July 2026.
However, Turkish officials have stressed that Ankara does not intend to completely abandon the pipeline, as it has invested heavily in its maintenance. They believe that the new framework could pave the way for a deeper economic partnership between the two countries.
The new policy is part of Turkey’s broader efforts to reduce its reliance on military means in its engagement with Iraq and replace it with sustainable economic ties.
This strategic shift will create increased competition with Gulf states, as they also seek to strengthen their economic presence in Iraq.
Meanwhile, the decline in Iranian influence, especially after its recent war with Israel, has created more opportunities for Ankara to play a more prominent role in the reconstructed power space in Iraq.
On the other hand, the gradual withdrawal of the United States has created a vacuum that Turkey intends to fill with an economic and infrastructural presence.
Domestically, Turkey’s offer could be attractive; Baghdad is seeking to develop energy infrastructure and create new economic opportunities for its citizens.
However, there are also some concerns about Turkey’s increasing influence and its impact on Iraqi sovereignty. Experts believe that the success of the plan depends on how well Baghdad welcomes it, manages domestic political sensitivities, and responds to regional rivals.
Overall, Turkey’s shift from a security-oriented policy to an economic integration policy in Iraq signals the emergence of a new era in regional competition; one in which the economy and infrastructure, rather than military tools, are the main tools of influence.