PNN – Although providing a definitive analysis in this case is not an easy task and it largely depends on the way the war continues, the plans presented by the mediating countries and the level of intervention of regional and international powers in the war, but it seems that there are several possible scenarios in this field.
According to the Pakistan News Network, in a situation where, in recent months, the United States had made extensive efforts to establish relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and some Arab countries in the region have also started their relations with Israel, on the anniversary of the Yom al-Kippur war, a surprise and large-scale attack by Hamas forces on Israel carried out under the title of “Al-Aqsa Storm” by launching 5 thousand rockets to nearby Jewish settlements and some areas in the center of Israel. At the same time, the forces of this group entered the areas occupied by the Israelis.
An attack that surprised the world and overshadowed other important crises and wars such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.
Regarding the causes of this crisis, it should be said that the continuation of Israel’s occupation and settlements, the imposition of severe pressure and deprivation on the Palestinian people, especially the residents of the Gaza Strip, and the desertions of the right-wing government of Netanyahu in the silence of the international community are among the important reasons for the patience of the Palestinian people. But in the end, perhaps it was the efforts of the Israeli regime to influence and normalize relations with the influential countries of the Arab and Islamic world, especially Saudi Arabia that made the start of war with this regime logical for Hamas leaders, even knowing Israel’s crushing response; an event that, if implemented, would consign the cause of independent Palestine to history and make Israel the main winner of the 70-year-old conflict with Palestine.
Based on this, the immediate result of this war is the suspension and silence of normalization negotiations, and at least as long as Israel’s crimes in Gaza are alive in the public mind, the discussion of the development of the Abraham Pact and the normalization of Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia will not be implemented.
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But in any case, war is not a desirable phenomenon, and especially when the level of civilian casualties is high, it is necessary to start efforts to end it as soon as possible. It should be said about the helpful solutions to end this war; Although providing a definitive analysis in this case is not an easy task and it largely depends on the way the war continues, the plans presented by the mediating countries and the level of intervention of regional and international powers in the war, but it seems that there are several possible scenarios in this field:
The first scenario: The continuation of the war until the complete destruction and defeat of one of the parties. In the framework of this scenario, the war will go out of the bilateral mode between Hamas and Israel and move towards regional and international cooperation like the model of World War I and II.
The second scenario: Ukrainization is the war between Israel and Hamas; That is, like the Ukrainian war model, no country directly enters the war in support of the conflicting parties, but covertly or openly provides financial, informational, military and logistical support to one of the parties. This scenario is more likely to happen than the first scenario, but due to its impact on the erosion of war and increasing its costs, it is not a favorable option for regional and global powers, and efforts are made to avoid it.
The third scenario: The acceptance of the peace plans presented by different countries, including the United States and Russia, and organizations such as the Islamic Cooperation, is that these plans are usually not accepted by one of the parties due to their bias and do not have sufficient implementation guarantees.
The fourth scenario: Leaving Hamas and Israel alone to continue the war is within the capacity of both sides; The purpose of this scenario, which has been implemented for at least a week and is likely to continue, is mostly to restore Israel’s dignity and make up for Israel’s intelligence blunder, which despite all its claims of being the superior military and intelligence power in the region, was made by militia group was attacked by surprise and suffered many losses and deaths.
Of course, in the framework of this scenario, indirect aid may be provided in various fields by the countries supporting both sides, but these aids are done in such a way that the scope of the war does not spread.