PNN – Referring to the hostile actions of the United States against Venezuela, a Turkish expert on Latin American issues said: The main goal of the Donald Trump administration is to remove Nicolas Maduro from power.
From north to south and from east to west, we will work to guarantee peace, sovereignty and development of the country, and I learned this golden rule from Commander Chavez. This was the response of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to the US government. The recent tensions between Washington and Caracas have entered new stages and it is no exaggeration to say that both countries are on the verge of military conflict.
The United States sent warships to the Caribbean in August, justifying the move as a fight against drug cartels. US President Donald Trump accuses Maduro of leading a drug cartel. This hostility reached the point where the Venezuelan President signed a legal decree declaring a state of emergency, emphasizing that this measure was intended to protect the country from any US military aggression.
In order to examine the recent military developments between the United States and Venezuela, Mehr correspondent conducted an interview with Yunus Soner, a politician, analyst of Latin American issues, and former deputy of the Turkish Patriotic Party. The details are as follows:
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After the US failed attempt last year to defeat Maduro in the Venezuelan presidential election, we are witnessing the deployment of a US war fleet in the Caribbean Sea under the pretext of fighting drugs. Experts believe that this claim does not correspond to reality and is more intended to exert maximum pressure on the government in Caracas. How do you assess the US military movements around Venezuela?
The US’s claims about the war on drugs are highly questionable. According to UN reports, only 5% of the drugs transported from South America to North America and Europe pass through Venezuela. This is also reflected in UN reports. Conversely, the route of drugs from South America, especially to North America, mainly passes through Colombia. The US has seven military bases in Colombia, but there is no evidence that these bases are involved in anti-drug activities.
Therefore, this justification seems to be an ideological pretext that the United States has put forward to launch a new invasion and is more aimed at convincing public opinion. It is important to remember that 20% of the US population is of Latin American origin and thousands of Venezuelans live in this country. Trump has made his goal clear. He has put a bounty on the Venezuelan president, holding him directly responsible for the drug trade, and has declared that his goal is to remove him from power.
What is the Trump Doctrine like in Latin America? To what extent is it true that Washington’s main goal in the region is to weaken the influence of Russia and China in American domestic life?
Although South America was important in Biden’s foreign policy, it was not at the top of the US agenda. Under Biden, relations with the European Union, the Ukraine conflict, and especially the competition with China were more of a priority than Venezuela. For this reason, the US somewhat neglected Latin America during Biden’s term. But with Trump’s rise to power, this policy changed, and relations with Latin America once again became a top priority. Trump, who saw Latin America as his backyard, began efforts to expand his influence in the region. The most important goal of these developments was, without a doubt, to contain the influence of Russia and China on the continent.
Venezuela is a case in point. The country has extensive ties with both Russia and China. Recently, China has begun making significant investments in Venezuelan oil production, creating new platforms to increase production and expand trade. This is part of the initiatives targeted by the US. A similar situation is also taking place in Mexico; the US is trying to pressure Mexico to weaken its trade relations with China under the pretext of the fight against drugs. Mexico and the US have created a free trade zone with Canada, and under pressure from the US president, Mexico has imposed an additional 50% tax on imports from China, especially electric cars. The vehicles were imported into Mexico’s domestic market and shipped to the United States, marking another attempt to undermine ties between China and Russia in Latin America under the pretext of drug trafficking.
The most important goal of the United States in Latin America is to regain control of the continent and establish itself as the absolute power there. One of the most tangible measures to this end is to weaken the developed relations of the countries of this continent with Russia, China, and other Asian countries. As another example, Honduras, a small Central American country, established formal diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China after a leftist government won elections. This was a highly symbolic initiative, and Honduras also joined the Belt and Road Initiative. Such initiatives were not welcomed by the US and are now being targeted. As a result, there is a potential for tension in South America between the US on the one hand and Asian countries such as Turkey and Iran, along with Russia and China on the other.
Given the ongoing hostility between Venezuela and the United States, will we see increased tensions and possibly a military conflict? As you know, Maduro has said: If we are forced to engage in armed conflict, we are fully prepared for it.
According to the US itself, eight different warships are currently stationed off the coast of Venezuela, with 4,000 troops in the area. However, this number does not appear to be militarily sufficient to launch a ground attack against Venezuela. Therefore, any attempt to invade Venezuela is highly unlikely militarily, and 4,000 troops seem too few for such an action. However, the US is increasing its military threat against Venezuela with the recent attacks. The likelihood of direct conflict between the US and Venezuelan armed forces seems low, with a US attack on Venezuela via missile or airstrike being a serious possibility. Hence, armed tensions between the two countries are expected to continue.
The Colombian government’s stance is therefore one factor that reduces the likelihood of direct conflict between the United States and Venezuela. However, it is safe to assume that political tensions and minor conflicts will continue. It is also worth noting that Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy for Venezuela, contacted the Maduro government and stated that there were diplomatic options other than war.