PNN – With the announcement of a humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip mediated by Qatar, in which Egypt and the United States participated, and with the disclosure of information about the possibility of its extension for another day or two, many questions have been raised. There are countless questions about the results of the war in Gaza, including the comparison of the human casualties of martyrs, wounded and the destruction of buildings and institutions in Gaza on the one hand, and on the other, the number of male and female prisoners released according to the agreement as a step in reducing tension.
Many people directly asked this question:
Is the release of dozens of male and female prisoners and even thousands of them in a subsequent deal “worth the killing of thousands of people and the destruction of Gaza”?
Some ask this out of regret
While many ask out of cynicism and slander
If the second category stems from prior positions and known biases, the first category deserves comprehensive discussion and responses.
But before trying to participate in this discussion, two important but worrying points on the sidelines of the ceasefire announcement should be noted:
They relate to elites, organizations and people outside of Palestine and come from good intentions and sound origins, but they are based on it. Assuming the war is completely over. The first is to declare and celebrate the victory rather than trying to consolidate it by stopping the war and preventing it from resuming, and the second is to focus on the idea of ​​”what has Gaza taught us” or what has happened instead of It has benefited us to support and help during the war and after it.
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It is too early to discuss the assessment of the war, the war has not yet ended and all its dimensions and consequences have not been clarified, but assuming the end of the war with this ceasefire and its extension, its assessment is in terms of destruction and casualties. In exchange for the prisoners is a quantitative evaluation in which four main problems are revealed.
The first thing to weigh is the loss of deterrence by the occupiers on which it has relied for decades, the collapse of the myths of an invincible military and all-knowing intelligence, and a regional power that has no equal power and that one cannot even think of countering it. What the Qassam Brigades achieved on October 7 shattered these myths and destroyed the occupation’s deterrent forces, not only against the Palestinian resistance, but also against several forces and countries in the region.
One of the most important evaluation criteria is the large amount of losses that the occupation during the war in terms of its officers and soldiers, including dead, wounded and prisoners, as well as in terms of war conditions. Tanks and their vehicles, including destruction and damage. This, in addition to the direct military and ground impact, is directly related to the reputation of Israel’s military establishment, the morale of the occupying soldiers versus the spirit of resistance, and the level of capability of the occupying army. Continuing the war as well as achieving any achievements in it.
In parallel, the crisis of trust between the occupying government and the security and military institutions, some of which were revealed in the media despite the official silence that followed, is one of the most important results of the battle and its consequences, which will interact. And after the announcement of its end, it gets worse widely and publicly, and this leads to the deepening of the polarization within the institution and fueling its internal conflicts, as well as the crisis of trust between the society and the government, which it was unable to do.
Finally, and after all this, there is the expected exchange of prisoners between the resistance and the occupation in terms of soldiers and officers in exchange for the resistance, a deal that may be able to directly and indirectly empty the occupied prisons of Palestinian prisoners. It affects the conflict, morale, and tensions within the organization and the future of many of its leaders.
At the end of the losses of the occupation and as a result, the achievements of the Palestinians in this war are many and great, and they are strategic achievements that have a fundamental connection with the conflict and the future of the Palestinian cause. Additional achievements that seem less important, such as image, media, narrative, etc. These are the achievements that were established on the first day of the war and the subsequent developments will not affect them. While the ugliness, greatness, disaster and importance of human losses, including martyrs and wounded, and the destruction that occurred, it is a kind of revenge and an attempt to reduce the impact of these losses on the internal space of “Israel” and therefore their reflection on the future of politicians and the army.
Profit and loss calculations in the strategic, military and security sense and in relation to the principle of the conflict and the future of the Palestinian issue will clearly be in favor of the Palestinians and their resistance, despite the huge and final costs of the war, sooner or later will reveal many of these features.