PNN – Yemen is no longer just an arena for internal conflict or Arab rivalry; it has become one of the chessboards of security in the Red Sea—a board where any wrong move can have consequences beyond Aden and Sana’a, casting a shadow over the entire West Asia region.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, recent developments in southern Yemen indicate that the country is no longer merely the scene of a civil war or a regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Ansarullah. Rather, it is gradually turning into one of the chokepoints of geopolitical competition in the Red Sea.
The emergence and consolidation of the Southern Transitional Council with the overt support of the UAE government, the wavering of the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi alliance, and the simultaneous expansion of the covert influence of actors such as the Zionist regime in the Yemeni equation have placed a complex picture of the country’s future before observers—a future that could have consequences extending beyond the country’s borders, impacting the security of the West Asia region.
Southern Yemen: The Battleground for Geopolitical Conflicts in West Asia
Yemen has been at the center of humanitarian and security crises for years, but what has happened in the south of the country in recent years indicates a shift in the nature of the crisis. The formation of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) of Yemen with Abu Dhabi’s backing and its de facto control over parts of Aden and the southern coast has created a new equation in the Yemen war. This council, rooted in historical separatist currents of South Yemen, is now not only a local player but has become a geopolitical tool in the rivalry of regional powers, particularly to advance the ambitions of Emirati rulers.
Meanwhile, the widening rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—the two main pillars of the anti-Ansarullah coalition—shows that the objectives of these two countries in Yemen, at least on the surface, no longer completely overlap. In this context, an important question arises: Could southern Yemen become a link connecting the interests of the UAE and Israel, and a platform for indirect pressure on Ansarullah and the Axis of Resistance?
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The Southern Transitional Council and the Wavering Riyadh-Abu Dhabi Alliance
The Southern Transitional Council was formed in 2017 with the clear support of the UAE and quickly managed to expand its influence in key areas of southern Yemen, especially Aden, the temporary capital of the opponents of the central government based in Sana’a. This council demands autonomy or even the revival of an independent South Yemen—a goal directly at odds with Saudi Arabia’s strategy.
Saudi Arabia seeks a unified but weak Yemen with a government aligned with Riyadh that does not pose a threat to the security of its southern borders. In contrast, the UAE has focused on controlling ports, shipping lanes, and strategic coasts of Yemen, preferring to establish long-term influence by creating dependent quasi-state structures. The UAE’s support for the Southern Transitional Council is precisely understandable within this framework.
In this vein, recent days have seen reports of direct or indirect clashes between forces aligned with Saudi Arabia and forces close to the Southern Transitional Council, a sign of this strategic rift—a rift that has cast serious doubt on the future of the Arab coalition in Yemen.
Israel: The Hidden but Active Observer
In this milieu, Israel is currently a hidden player—not an overt force on the Yemeni scene, but undoubtedly an active and interested observer. For Tel Aviv, the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are of vital importance, as any disruption to the security of this route can directly impact the trade, energy, and maritime security of this regime.
Ansarullah, with its capability to target ships and threaten maritime routes, has become one of the new security challenges for Israel. In such a situation, the emergence of a force rivaling Ansarullah in southern Yemen could be attractive to Tel Aviv.
However, Israel prefers to remain in the shadows for now. This regime’s experience in other regions (such as Iraqi Kurdistan) shows that Tel Aviv often uses a pattern of “indirect influence”—meaning security, intelligence, and technological cooperation through regional allies, without official or overt presence.
The UAE: The Visible and Invisible Connecting Link
At this point, the role of the UAE becomes prominent. Abu Dhabi is the only player that has both close and overt relations with Israel and deep, direct influence over the Southern Transitional Council. This unique position makes Abu Dhabi a potential connecting link between the Southern Transitional Council and Tel Aviv.
Following normalization agreements, the UAE has begun extensive cooperation with Israel in security, intelligence, maritime, and surveillance technology fields. The indirect transfer of knowledge, equipment, or information could be part of this cooperation. Such a pattern has been seen before in other regions like the Horn of Africa or certain coastal points of the Red Sea.
Within this framework, the Southern Transitional Council could become a tool for indirect pressure on Ansarullah—pressure that, without the direct entry of Tel Aviv, secures part of this regime’s security interests in the volatile scene of Yemeni developments, which played a prominent role in the battle supporting Gaza.
The Scenario of Southern Yemen’s Secession: Opportunity or Crisis?
One serious, though not immediate, scenario discussed in recent weeks is the de facto secession of southern Yemen. Realizing such a scenario requires the complete weakening of the central government, the consolidation of the Southern Transitional Council’s power, and sustained regional support—especially from the UAE. Saudi Arabia has not cooperated with such a process so far, but the continuation of disputes could reduce Riyadh’s room for maneuver.
From Israel’s perspective, the formation of a small, coastal, and dependent state in southern Yemen could be a strategic opportunity: threatening Ansarullah from a southern front, reducing pressure on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb, and creating new security depth in the Red Sea. However, this scenario also carries significant risks. The fragmentation of Yemen could turn the country into a permanent arena for proxy wars—a situation that threatens not only regional stability but also global energy and trade security.
Consequences for Ansarullah and the Region
For Ansarullah, the consolidation of a hostile structure in southern Yemen means facing a multi-faceted threat. Such a situation could expand the scope of the conflict and even lead to the transfer of tensions to regional waters. However, experience has shown that Ansarullah, in the face of asymmetric pressure, usually moves to solidify its own deterrent power rather than retreat.
In fact, the primary threat posed by the consolidation of the Southern Transitional Council’s authority in Yemen for the Axis of Resistance would be the opening of a door for the Zionist regime to enter the scene of Yemen’s internal equations and the transformation of this area into an Israeli intelligence-surveillance base.
These developments could transform Yemen from an internal crisis into an international security knot—a knot that could even draw more extra-regional players into the tangled equations of the Red Sea.
The developments in southern Yemen show that the country has entered a new phase of the power game. The Southern Transitional Council, the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the hidden but significant role of Israel all point to a shift in Yemen’s geopolitics. Israel currently prefers to remain in the shadows, but the UAE, with its close relations with both sides—namely the Southern Transitional Council and Tel Aviv—could play the role of the connecting link.
In the end, it seems Yemen is no longer just an arena for internal strife or Arab rivalry; it has become one of the chessboards of security in the Red Sea—a board where any wrong move can have consequences beyond Aden and Sana’a, casting a shadow over the entire West Asia region.