PNN – BBC in a report about “the probability of success of Israel’s ground operation in Gaza“; Referring to the statistical fact that “the Israeli army has called up the largest number of reserve forces in the history of its wars to fight with Hamas”, he reminded the promises of the Israeli leaders about the complete eradication of Hamas from the earth, and of course, it is impossible to fulfill such promises in the near future.
“Paul Kirby” wrote in the British BBC: Israeli leaders have announced that Hamas will disappear from the face of the earth and Gaza will never be the same again.
After more than 1,400 Israelis were killed in a surprise operation by Hamas gunmen, Benjamin Netanyahu said that “all members of Hamas should consider themselves dead from now on.” The Prime Minister of Israel later promised that the terror machine and political structure of Hamas will be dismantled.
Israel has said that in order to achieve its goals, it will expand its ground operations in Gaza. The goal is to defeat Hamas in the first place, and after accepting the defeat of Hamas, to completely separate from Gaza. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks about a new security regime there, where Israel has no responsibility for everyday life.
The goal of Operation Iron Swords is much, much more ambitious than anything the Israeli army had planned in Gaza until just a few months ago. Israeli military forces also feel the responsibility of rescuing 239 hostages held in undisclosed locations across Gaza.
But are these goals realistic? And of course, in addition, how can the commanders of the Israeli army achieve the planned ambitious goals?
Entering the Gaza Strip requires conducting urban battles from house to house and entails many risks and dangers for the city’s more than two million civilian population. Authorities in Hamas-run Gaza say more than 8,000 people have been killed in the city and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes.
Israel Army Radio military analyst Amir Bar Shalom says: “I don’t think Israel can eliminate all members of Hamas, because this group is based on an idea or a vision that constantly brings new forces into the field of struggle. However, it can be weakened as much as possible and the operational capability can be taken from it.
In this sense, weakening Hamas may be a more realistic and operational goal than its complete destruction.
Israel has been involved in war with Hamas four times and has failed every time in every attempt to stop Hamas’ rocket attacks. One of the spokespersons of the Israeli army considers the main goal of the current war to be that Hamas no longer has the necessary military capability to “threaten or kill Israelis”.
Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Association of Tel Aviv University, agrees with those who believe that “destroying Hamas will be very difficult and complicated.” He says that “to believe that Israel will be able to root out the vision and the idea that is rooted in Hamas, a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood that has influenced Islamist movements around the world; It is naive and of course pretentious.”
He says that apart from the more than 25,000 forces of the military wing of Hamas, this group has 80 to 90,000 members who are part of the social welfare infrastructure or al-Dawa.
Eventually; The Israeli Defense Minister also says that the future of Israel in the next 75 years will largely depend on the outcome of this war.
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A ground invasion is fraught with danger
Military operations are influenced by many factors, each of which can easily derail the operation.
The armed wing of Hamas, in other words, Ezzedine Qassam’s battalions, has been preparing for an Israeli attack for a long time and will definitely stand against Israel with full readiness. Undoubtedly, weapons and explosive equipment and ambushes are also planned in the path of Israel’s attack. This group can also use its wide and famous network of tunnels to attack Israeli forces.
In 2014, Israeli infantry battalions suffered heavy losses in the face of anti-tank mines, snipers, and Hamas ambushes. Of course, hundreds of civilians were killed in these clashes in one of the northern areas of Gaza City. This is one of the reasons why Israel has demanded the evacuation of the northern half of the Gaza Strip.
Israel has warned its citizens to prepare for a long war, apparently setting a new record by calling for 360,000 reservists.
Yossi Melman, one of the leading security and intelligence journalists, says: “The government and the army feel that they have the support of the international community – at least from the Western leaders. In such a situation, their philosophy is that now that we have a lot of time, it is better to increase the mobilization of forces.
Rescue the hostages
Many of the hostages are Israeli, but there are also foreign nationals and dual nationals among them, which means that several other countries – including the United States, France and Britain – will also participate in the operation and their release.
Col. Michel Goya, a French expert on strategic issues, says that “the Israeli army has to make a simple choice – whether it wants to save the lives of the hostages or to hit Hamas as much as possible.”
The desperate requests of the hostages and the families of the captives also increase the pressure on the Israeli leaders.
In 2011, Israel exchanged more than 1,000 prisoners in exchange for the release of Gilad Shalit, a soldier who had been held by Hamas for five years.
However, this time Israel before ordering the release of a large group of its prisoners; He should think more, because in the previous exchange, one of those who was freed was Yahya Senwar, who later became known as the political leader of Hamas in Gaza.
The neighbors are watching
The type of reaction of Israel’s neighbors is one of the issues that can affect the duration and outcome of Israel’s ground attack.
The Rafah crossing, which is located on the border between Egypt and Gaza, has become a humanitarian focal point, where a number of foreigners and Palestinians with foreign passports are waiting to leave Gaza.
One of the people Abdel Fattah al-Sisi says is King Abdullah of Jordan, who has spoken of his country’s “red line” for any possible attempt to expel Palestinian refugees from Gaza and has warned that “the place for Palestinian refugees is neither in Jordan nor in Egypt.”
Israel’s last game for Gaza
If Israel has decided to weaken Hamas to a great extent, the question arises, what will replace Hamas?
Israel withdrew its army and thousands of settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and appears to have no intention of returning as an occupying force. US President Joe Biden has also called this a big mistake.
The power vacuum can end up creating very serious risks, and Mr. Milstein warns that there is a risk that ten new problems will arise in the region to solve this problem.
Ophir Winter believes that the power shift has the potential to pave the way for the gradual return of the Palestinian Authority, which was driven out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007.
The PA currently controls parts of the West Bank, but is weak there, and persuading it to return to Gaza will be difficult.
The Egyptian president has so far shown no interest in controlling Gaza, but at the same time he has repeatedly noted that “if past negotiations had led to the creation of a Palestinian state, there would be no war now.”