PNN – The possibility of the ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Ansarullah breaking down is not simply a random event but the result of Riyadh’s irresponsible policies.
The roots of today’s tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia go back to a point where the historical weakness of the state structure in Yemen intersected with Riyadh’s chronic security concerns about the rise of an armed non-state actor on its northern borders. Since the Saudi-North Yemen war, this situation has led to the formation of a long-running conflict centered not only on battlefields, but also on control over energy routes, desert geography, and defensive depth on both sides.
The current developments in Al-Jawf, Al-Wadi’a, and Al-Mahra are a continuation of the same pattern, as the relocation of forces affiliated with Riyadh, the activation of Salafist units, and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to stabilize new border realities are all taking place in a context that is simultaneously influenced by secret negotiations, security calculations, and geopolitical competition. Therefore, the current tension, rather than being a temporary increase in violence, is a reflection of the structural and unresolved gaps that have existed in Yemeni-Saudi relations from the beginning.
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The duality of negotiation and war in the Yemeni arena
In recent months, developments taking place on the sidelines of the closed-door talks between Muscat and Doha have coincided with a highly volatile situation in eastern Yemen. Riyadh has been trying to build a new defensive structure, with an increasing focus on the border lines of Al-Jawf and the desert strip extending to Al-Mahra, an effort that has been directly influenced by the experience of 2020 and the loss of major parts of Al-Jawf province. According to field data published by conflict monitoring organizations, Saudi-affiliated forces have been moving in recent weeks to redeploy to areas close to energy fields, but the National Salvation Government’s military units have neutralized these advances in several places.
A battle for energy security
The escalation of military tensions in the Yemeni-Saudi border strip, especially in the provinces of Al-Jawf and Al-Mahra, and the unprecedented use of drones by forces affiliated with Riyadh indicate a deadlock in the peace talks, as Sanaa believes that Saudi Arabia has sacrificed the implementation of its commitments to guaranteeing the security of Israel and the stability of the Red Sea. These developments, accompanied by warnings from Sanaa of a return to the military option, go beyond a simple border conflict from a geopolitical perspective and historical analysis, and are rooted in Riyadh’s strategic effort to create a “security buffer zone” along the route of the oil pipeline project to the Arabian Sea (to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).
As diplomatic contacts between Riyadh and Sanaa intensify, a series of geopolitical variables at the regional level have further complicated the situation. The temporary halt to Ansarullah’s cross-border attacks against Israeli targets, which, according to American sources, was carried out in the form of an informal understanding, provided an opportunity to open negotiations in Muscat; however, the political-economic pressures on Sanaa and the group’s demand to “convert the reduction in tension into an end to the war and the siege” led to a more aggressive approach at the level of political statements.
In this context, the continuation of joint Saudi-Emirati exercises focusing on air power and operational networking has been seen as a sign of the conservative axis of the region’s efforts to redefine the security equations in the south of the peninsula; an analysis that has also been reflected in reports by European security institutions. In parallel, the US policy of pursuing plans to disarm non-state actors in Iraq and Lebanon and increasing multifaceted pressure on Ansarullah has increased the certainty of members of the resistance axis regarding the existence of a broader security realignment project.