“France’s Election Stunner: The Rise of the Left – 10 Possible Outcomes”
After the victory of the New People’s Front coalition in the French parliamentary elections, the country’s newspaper Liberation raised the question in an article about what would happen after the second round of elections in which the New People’s Front won without an absolute majority.
In a report by Lucy Alexander, this newspaper emphasized that the division of parliament into large and opposing factions will not allow the emergence of an absolute majority in these elections, so France faces a new political scene that has not been seen since 1958.
Although the French left movement was ranked first in this election, with 289 representatives, it was far from obtaining the majority needed to approve legislative plans and programs.
Here, the French newspaper Libération outlines 10 scenarios for the next stage of the French parliamentary elections, which are as follows:
1. Interaction and coexistence: Since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, France has witnessed this situation three times, that is, where the political approach of the president was not the same as that of the prime minister and his government due to the defeat of the president in the parliamentary elections.
At the current stage, no one knows how French President Emmanuel Macron, who has always been used to concentrating power in his own hands, will react to the new political reality of this country, especially in the field of passing laws and even the country’s budget.
Here, strong differences may arise between the future prime minister and the French president, and the situation will be difficult for Macron personally.
2. Forming a coalition: Since there is no absolute majority in the parliament, it is possible to ally with different political groups to form a ruling coalition. This practice is common in the parliamentary systems of the world, but it is considered unprecedented in France.
The black propaganda of the camp of the French president against the left movement does not help Macron’s supporters and the cooperation of other parties with them.
3. Forming a government of national unity: This scenario is based on a plan that Emmanuel Macron had already thought of and tried to bring together the famous political groups in a coalition called the Republicans, but this plan never came to fruition and it does not seem that It should be on the agenda after the parliamentary elections of this country.
4. Return to the Third Republic: Since the French constitution prohibits any dissolution of the new parliament one year after the dissolution of the previous parliament, French political science professor Thomas Erhard predicts that a system similar to the Third Republic will be formed in France. It will create a period of instability. In the meantime, the big mistake of Macron and his advisers was that they did not understand that the dissolution of the parliament acts like a nuclear weapon, and threatening it is no different from its implementation, and the consequences are even greater.
5. Technocratic government: Technocratic government is a phrase that has become popular among the French recently and reminds us of Macron’s view that the country should be run based on experience and not ideology. However, this plan does not have clear dimensions and does not seem to be feasible.
6. Interim government: The interim government is run by a resigned or deposed executive officer who has very limited powers and is placed in this position only to manage affairs in emergencies until finally a coalition agreement is made to form a government. But the French are strangers to such a formula, although it is popular among their Belgian, Italian, and German neighbors.
7. Dissolution of Parliament: Although the French Constitution does not allow Macron to dissolve Parliament again before a year has passed. But there may be a way to dissolve the parliament again; Because the president, as the final guarantor of the country’s institutions, can find a new legal path to dissolve the parliament.
8. Macron’s resignation: Although “Marine Le Pen”, the leader of the right-wing coalition of the National Rally of France, announced during his election campaign that Macron had no choice but to resign, Macron said, “This possibility is unlikely. You can trust me to work as your president and supporter until May 2027. There is also no rational benefit for Macron to resign from the presidency.
Analysts also believe that dissolving the parliament at the current stage is of no use, but the president can choose to remain in office or leave it, and if the president resigns, the Senate will be obliged to perform the duties of the president until the take over early presidential elections.
9. Macron’s full powers: the rumor of resorting to Article 16 of the Constitution to find a solution in a situation where there is no absolute majority in the parliament is denied by all experts; Because giving full powers to the president is possible only when national institutions and the independence of the nation and the country’s territorial integrity are under threat.
10. Carrying out structural reforms: it is not possible to carry out structural reforms in such conditions, because the result of the parliamentary elections cannot be ignored; In particular, Macron still wants to protect the Fifth Republic, unlike the New Popular Front, which seeks to establish the Sixth Republic.