PNN – Although the first phase of the Gaza war has somewhat paused and the likelihood of a return to the scale of the past two years’ genocidal attacks by the occupation regime seems low, the Gaza ceasefire remains full of minefields in the form of unresolved and complex issues, creating dangerous scenarios.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, amid Israeli obstruction and deceit in the Gaza ceasefire process and preventing progress to the second phase of the agreement, some regional and international observers believe that Israel has prepared a new long-term plan for Gaza.
Al Jazeera, in an article by Palestinian writer and analyst Ahmad Al-Hayla, analyzed the dimensions of this Israeli plan, supported by the US:
The fragile end of the first phase of Gaza’s ceasefire
The Israeli occupation regime has received all living prisoners as well as most of the bodies of deceased prisoners held by the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, and other resistance groups, including the body of Colonel Asaf Hamami, commander of the Southern Brigade in the Gaza Division, handed over by the resistance last Monday. He was the highest-ranking Israeli officer held captive by the resistance.
The prisoner exchange, now in its final stages, was one of the main challenges for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli society—especially prisoners’ families, soldiers, and officers—considered the return of these prisoners, alive or dead, a necessity.
Despite the significance of the prisoner exchange for Israel, it may be the simplest part of the ceasefire agreement; many other issues remain that are politically and security-wise much more complex than the prisoner matter.
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Guterres expresses concern over Gaza ceasefire violations, without mentioning Tel Aviv’s aggression
Completing the prisoner exchange could be a positive signal for progress on other issues, but there is also a risk that Israel may renege on its security and humanitarian commitments.
During the exchange process, Israel did not fully adhere to the Gaza ceasefire agreement, particularly its humanitarian protocol, allowing less than 25 percent of the needed food and medicine and only 10 percent of the fuel required for the Strip.
Meanwhile, Israeli attacks on Gaza resumed, and within a month of the ceasefire, over 250 Palestinians were killed and hundreds more wounded in Israeli assaults, indicating that the occupiers have no genuine intention to implement the ceasefire.
In fact, while the ceasefire has so far halted Israel’s large-scale genocidal war in Gaza, prevented mass displacement, allowed partial humanitarian aid, and guaranteed the withdrawal of occupation forces, it still conceals a minefield of complex issues that could spark future political tensions or security clashes.
Gaza Administration: Clash of Two Views
Former US President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza proposes forming an administrative committee of Palestinian technocrats and international experts, supervised by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to manage Gaza’s municipal and service affairs.
According to this plan, the committee would operate until the Palestinian Authority completes its reform program. However, both the US and Israel know that the Palestinian Authority neither has a reform program nor the capacity to implement it. This means the proposed committee could gradually become a permanent administrative body for Gaza under US and Israeli oversight.
In contrast, Hamas and other Palestinian groups insist that Gaza must be administered by a fully Palestinian technocratic body without any foreign intervention. The head of this body should be chosen from within Gaza or from the Palestinian Authority ministers and all members must have national Palestinian consensus.
The sensitive issue of the Palestinian resistance’s weapons
Trump’s plan emphasizes the disarmament of the Palestinian resistance, the destruction of its infrastructure—particularly the tunnel networks—and conditions the full withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza on achieving this goal. It also proposes the creation of an international force to control borders and prevent weapons from entering Gaza.
In contrast, Hamas and other Palestinian groups insist that the issue of resistance weapons is an internal matter. They argue that first, an independent Palestinian state must be established, and only then should the question of weapons be addressed within a national Palestinian framework.
Egypt’s cautious stance
Egypt, as a key actor in Gaza and the ceasefire process, has taken a cautious position. Zia Rashwan, head of Egypt’s information apparatus, stated that Israel seeks to disarm Hamas, but Hamas considers its weapons as Palestinian resistance weapons. As an alternative, a proposal has been made to seize Hamas’s weapons for ten years instead of dismantling them.
Egypt believes that Palestinians should not be asked to relinquish their arms before achieving self-determination and forming an independent state. Historically, Gaza is considered Egypt’s eastern gate, and allowing it to fall under Israeli control would pose a direct threat to Egypt’s national security.
International forces in Gaza: Peacekeepers or enforcers of Israeli interests?
Trump’s plan suggests establishing an international force as a long-term measure in Gaza, but its tasks, authority, and chain of command remain unclear. Israel opposes the presence of Turkey and Qatar—guarantors of the ceasefire—in this force, arguing that their close ties to Hamas pose a direct threat.
Turkey, over recent years, has played a growing regional role in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Sudan, and maintains close relations with the US, which makes Israel wary of Turkish involvement in Gaza.
Several key questions about the international force remain unanswered: Which authority will oversee it? Will it act under the UN Security Council or the direction of the US and Israel? What positions will Russia and China take? Is its mission merely to monitor and organize Gaza, or will it involve disarming the resistance and pursuing Palestinian groups?
An unfinished war and unresolved issues
While Trump’s plan may have paused the first phase of the Gaza war and prevented the forced displacement of Gazans, major issues remain unresolved: disarming the resistance, long-term international trusteeship over Gaza, and neglecting the Palestinian right to self-determination.
This fragile situation renders the ceasefire unstable. Although a return to a war on the scale of the past two years seems unlikely, the US and Israel continue to pursue their main objectives: eliminating Hamas from Gaza and disarming it.
Consequently, Israeli attacks on Gaza, though limited, have continued, resulting in hundreds of Palestinian casualties over the past month, reflecting the pressure applied by Washington and Tel Aviv to achieve their war aims.
Israel’s dangerous scenario for dividing Gaza
Israel aims to maintain control over large parts of Gaza while keeping the population in a state of chronic humanitarian crisis, ensuring they struggle constantly to meet basic needs.
To achieve this, Israel is pursuing two main paths:
1.Exploitation of the humanitarian disaster: By preventing Gaza’s reconstruction, Israel intends to force residents to migrate in search of basic living standards, gradually settling them in other countries.
- Dividing Gaza into eastern and western sectors: If efforts to disarm the resistance and establish international trusteeship fail, Israel may split Gaza into two areas:
- The western half under Hamas’s administration with Gaza’s 2 million inhabitants.
- The eastern half, depopulated, under full Israeli military control.
Under this scenario, Israel, with US support, might rebuild the eastern part for those Palestinians willing to live in so-called “safe” areas. This aligns with Trump’s plan, which stipulated that if Hamas refuses to leave Gaza and be disarmed, humanitarian aid and reconstruction would be limited to the eastern sectors.