PNN – The US presidential election, which will be held less than 8 days from now, is one of the most important elections that is not only important for the people of this country and the two competing groups, Republican and Democratic, but also has important consequences for the world, organizations and regional agreements from the path of economy and politics.
Current conditions of competitions
According to USA Today media report: The competition between “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump” has become closer and more sensitive than before as November 5, 2024 approaches to elect the 60th president in this country. In such a way that most of the political figures such as Barack Obama and his wife, Bill Clinton and his wife, as well as the famous celebrities of this country have openly joined the political alignment in support of one of these two people to intensify their last efforts to support the person in question.
The latest national poll, the results of which were published last Thursday, emphasized again that the race between the Republican and Democratic candidates is very close. In this way, Trump and Harris are working hard in their election campaigns in seven key states to empty the ballot box of their rival. However, the Electoral College system is the last straw in the US presidential election to show that a candidate like Hillary Clinton in 2016 can win the popular vote but still lose the election.
So far, the results of the polls about the lead of Harris or Trump have been accompanied by a small difference; sometimes one of the two candidates is ahead, and sometimes both candidates are in the same position, like the results of the last two days of the CBS poll.
In a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris led Trump by four points (51 percent to 47 percent) among likely voters. In the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, Harris led Trump by one point (50 percent to 49 percent) among likely voters. Harris had a two-point lead in the previous ABC poll, while he had a three-point lead in the previous CBS poll.
Historical records have shown that the results of the American elections have wide economic-political and security consequences in the world, which will affect all countries, unions, international organizations and security arrangements in different regions of the world. In this article, we have tried to mention some of these consequences.
European Union
According to the report of the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, even the allies and partners of the United States in the world are preparing to change the next president of the United States. This issue does not mean separating from the United States, but most of them seek to interact with the new America by developing more self-reliance in security affairs and regional integration.
America’s neighbors expect the United States to be less dominant and prominent, while allies and strategic partners welcome any sign of continued alliance-oriented policies from the next president; There is an understanding that the US domestic willingness to engage deeply may be weakening, and this will characterize a Harris or Trump presidency in America with varying degrees of strength or weakness.
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Some international relations experts believe that the November 2024 US presidential election will have serious consequences for Europe. Trump’s re-election may signal a return to his “America First” policies, which pose serious challenges to transatlantic relations. The election of Harris could be a shift in US policy, potentially shifting the focus of foreign policy away from the continent.
These experts have evaluated four important issues in the relations between Europe and America:
- In many parts of Europe, the US presidential and congressional elections in 2024 are seen as a potential turning point in transatlantic relations. This is primarily due to European concerns about Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the presidency.
2- Europeans are extremely worried about the consequences of another Trump presidency for their security. It is clear that US support is still vital to NATO and Ukraine. Without a clear commitment from the United States, NATO will lack the political leadership and conventional and nuclear capabilities to defend Europe. Based on Trump’s comments, Europeans expect him to use NATO’s Article 5 as leverage to increase military spending even more than they did in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
There is little confidence among European leaders in Trump’s willingness or ability to make negotiations with Putin on a ceasefire part of a comprehensive strategy with lasting benefits, let alone a peace plan that fully protects Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- From this perspective, U.S. leadership is also important in addressing other global threats that directly affect Europe, such as war in the Middle East, cyber-attacks, and freedom of navigation in international waters.
- In any case, Europe needs the leadership of the United States in a series of global issues, but this leadership is not at all clear if Trump enters the White House. If Harris does not change US policies in the Middle East, neither will Europe, and this will preserve the West’s collective position.
- Europe benefits from America’s fresher, more pragmatic and at the same time principled approach to China, and Trumpism is more dangerous for Europe than it is a wake-up call for Europe.
World security arrangements
After Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 election race and introduced his deputy as the alternative candidate of the Democrats, Harris said on July 23 at his presidential nomination ceremony, this election is about two different visions for our country; One in which we focus on the future, the other focus on the past. A day later, in a speech from his Oval Office, Biden repeated the same theme: America must choose between moving forward or backward.
America is now indirectly involved in two wars and military crisis in Ukraine and Gaza. Meanwhile, US-China relations have worsened and tensions have increased in the Asia-Pacific region.
Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, raised a weak outlook for the state of economic growth in the world last week, saying that the world is suffering from high debt and is heading towards slow growth in the medium term. If there is an escalation of tensions that threaten oil and gas supplies, this could have more significant implications for the global economy.
In any case, the next president of the United States, after coming to power, will face not only two wars in Europe and the Middle East, but also various conditions of instability and conflict in many regions of the world, including the China Sea, and for this will make decisions.
Democracy
Helmut K. Unheier, Senior Professor of Sociology at Herty College, and Edward L. Knudsen” research associate professor of this school announced in a joint article in this field: On November 5, 2024, Americans will go to the polls in another important election, one that promises to have fewer margins for the world. The important thing is that this election will have a great impact on the future of democracy around the world. This is an important look at the governance of countries, beyond economic factors and beyond the standard media coverage that tends to present elections as exciting “horse race” events.
The two men responded to a question about Francis Fukuyama’s blunt warning at a meeting at the school earlier that if Trump wins the next election, democracy in the United States will be in trouble. To what extent do you agree with this statement and what exactly do you think is at stake for America and indeed the world? They said: We agree that Fukuyama has accurately identified the danger of a second Trump presidency, but caution is warranted because it is not the only threat to democracy. Many cases of democratic backsliding in this country have also been recorded during the Obama administration. This is a warning that even the Harris presidency may not be able to reverse the declining trend of attention to democracy in America.
Global fight against climate change
Severe climate changes in countries and different parts of the globe caused by the aggressive performance of industries and industrial thinking is still a problem and even the main threat in the world, and environmental scientists have repeatedly warned that the “fate of the planet” is at risk.
Ariel Moger, director of political affairs at Friends of the Earth Action, an environmental activist group in the United States, told Al Jazeera: The United States plays a large role in international politics and greenhouse gas emissions. In many ways, the fate of our planet depends on the American voters, because the fate of global issues on the planet depends a lot on the decisions of the next president of the United States.
Summary; Turbulent global economy
International experts have predicted that the 2024 US presidential election will have a great impact on the international community. They emphasize that Harris’s foreign policy lines are not yet clear, or at least not clearly stated; But if Trump is elected, international experts expect the United States to move away from the idea of ​​global governance and adopt a more nationalistic approach; Although in both ways, the issue of the world will be greatly affected by the consequences of the US presidential election.
Josh Lipsky, a former official at the International Monetary Fund who now heads the Center for Geoeconomics at the Atlantic Council, says: One of the most important current issues for the global economy is the outcome of the US election. This election has huge implications for trade policy, the future of the dollar, which will be the next head of the Federal Reserve, and other issues that affect every country in the world.
For example, Harris is widely expected to resume multilateral cooperation on climate, taxation and debt relief if elected to the White House.
In general, it can be said that the 27 countries of the European Union have been involved in the influence and influence of the power of the United States and the foreign policy decisions of this country for more than seven decades, and any kind of policy change in this field will directly affect the security, economy and politics of Europe.
After the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, Europe found itself involved in a tariff war and had to accept the end of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which it had supported.
According to many countries of the world, including Europe, if Trump is re-elected, maybe all international agreements will be changed or revised. The far right will become bolder in the United States, Europe and even the Americas. Government-to-government cooperation on climate change and artificial intelligence will end abruptly. Europe’s need for a geopolitical power will become more essential. In addition, Europe will continue to face pressure from the United States to pay more on various issues.