PNN – The United States and China today are officially in a trade war. Washington is deeply concerned about China’s dominance over the global economy, but behind this economic competition, there is a larger political struggle.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, quoting Al Jazeera, Donald Trump, the President of the United States, decided last February to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports from China to the U.S. This was the first time that the Trump administration targeted Beijing in the new era. China is considered the world’s largest producer of steel, and despite heavy U.S. tariffs, Chinese steel found its way into the United States through intermediaries; a portion of it is bought by various countries and then sent to the U.S.
As expected, China’s reaction to Trump’s new tariffs came very quickly, and the country announced that it would impose 15% tariffs on imports of chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton from the United States, and 10% tariffs on red meat and dairy products, which indicates further trade tensions between the two countries.
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90-day ceasefire: a pause before the next wave of the China-US trade war.
Who will control the global order in the coming decades?
Thus, the United States and China are officially in a trade war today. Washington is deeply worried about China’s dominance over the global economy, but behind this economic rivalry lies a larger political struggle — a struggle over who will control the global order in the coming decades.
With China’s rapid progress toward becoming a global superpower, attention has increasingly turned to a theory proposed in the 1990s by John Mearsheimer, the famous American political scientist; a theory known as “offensive realism.” This theory presents a pessimistic prediction for the future of the international system and especially for the possibility of war between the United States and China.
Supporters of this theory believe that there is a direct relationship between power and security at various levels, and that guaranteeing security requires a state to constantly increase its capabilities and gain superiority over its enemies. In fact, no state can enjoy absolute security unless it has a dominant position in the international system or at least within its regional sphere.
In this situation, the dominant power will be able to deter its potential rivals and force them to make concessions, thereby strengthening its own power; but if it fails in this path, its rivals will have the opportunity to overtake it and become a major threat. At that stage, war or conflict merely becomes a matter of time.
The tragedy of great power politics
John Mearsheimer, an American political scientist and one of the most prominent theorists of offensive realism, presented his ideas on this matter in his book titled “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.” This major American theorist believes that the international system has five essential characteristics that work together to make the struggle for power the main driving force of state behavior, because states are constantly trying to increase their power at the expense of their rivals and enemies.
Regarding the confrontation and competition between China and the United States, Mearsheimer believes that China, as an emerging global power, is following the same path that the United States took decades ago. Initially, Beijing seeks to become the dominant power in its own regional sphere, but it realizes that this region is not free of external influence and that it must confront American influence there. In this context, the issue of Taiwan arises, which China considers part of its territory, but the United States has strong influence in Taiwan. South Korea and Japan, two major rivals of China and key U.S. allies, also come into play, hosting dozens of American military bases and tens of thousands of U.S. troops.
According to official statistics, China spends nearly 219 billion dollars annually on military expenses, while this figure was about 25 billion dollars in 1995. Some estimates suggest that considering purchasing power parity, this number increases to 500–700 billion dollars, bringing it very close to the level of the United States. Naturally, a major portion of these expenditures goes toward strengthening China’s military arsenal in various sectors.
Is war between China and the U.S. near?
Between 2014 and 2018, China built more ships than the combined total of Germany, India, Spain, and Britain. The Chinese navy is a key instrument for Beijing to project power and compete with the United States in regional waters around China and even in more distant waters. Simultaneously, China is strengthening its air force. For example, the H-20 is a Chinese bomber expected to enter service within a few years. It is estimated that this bomber will have a range of about 8,500 kilometers. It is also expected that the bomber will carry at least 10 tons of payload, capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons.
While the U.S. Navy is stationed almost all over the world, China has so far focused on a single goal: controlling the international waters around it, which it considers its backyard. From China’s perspective, the only way to dominate the regional environment around China, where the United States has influence, is confrontation with the U.S.
In reality, the competition between Beijing and Washington in China’s regional sphere is a recipe for a destructive war in the future. Of course, Mearsheimer’s theory does not take into account the possibility that China may try to bypass U.S. presence by relying on the passage of time and without direct confrontation. Ultimately, if China can maximize its capabilities in the coming decades while avoiding conflict with the United States, a new bipolar global order may emerge, similar to the Soviet era, leading to a relatively more stable world. But if Mearsheimer’s prediction comes true and an unavoidable confrontation occurs, the war will expand to other arenas as well.