PNN – Supporting the war will most likely cost Biden a loss in the next US election. But withdrawing from this war also includes such a possibility for him. England and France also cannot choose between supporting the Gaza war and withdrawing from it without paying a heavy price.
Nearly ten weeks have passed since the beginning of the Gaza war. The military strategy of the usurping Israeli regime has always been “decisive attack in a short time”. Now the decisive attack has been carried out in the most complete form, but it has not been “short”. Therefore, until now, at least 50% of its military strategy has remained on the ground. When will the end of this war come? Certainly, the army of the criminal regime does not know the answer to this question, but America, as its most involved foreign supporter, does not know the answer to this question either. Some American circles have talked about the end of the war until the end of this year, i.e. in three weeks, but this date is also not certain because due to the strong resistance of Gaza, there is nothing known about the fake Israeli regime, which has not been able to declare even one of the three main goals in ten weeks. can achieve it in the next three weeks. The Zionist regime has foolishly considered only two situations; The concrete and irreparable failure of the Palestinian resistance or accepting the absolute failure of the resistance. Now Israel is caught in this self-made predicament and has no way to get out of this predicament and is in dire need of help from outside.
Realizing this issue, the United States has sent its top political and military officials to the region in addition to its full political support – which was highlighted by the veto of the Security Council resolution on Friday – and full military support – which is evidenced by the continuous shipment of deadly weapons. In the latest of these measures, Joe Biden’s deputy Kamala Harris came to Tel Aviv, Ramallah, Cairo and Doha. Apparently, the agenda of the sent officials is to make the post-war conditions clear before the end of the war. In other words, America is trying to obtain a “security guarantee” for Israel after ending the war. But who or who is really able to give this guarantee to the troubled Israeli regime or to its foreign sponsor? There is something to be said in this regard:
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1- The known and continuous war strategy of the usurper regime has been “decisive attack in a short time” and it seems that this is a geopolitical strategy on the one hand and a sociopolitical strategy on the other hand, and in other words, a geographical coercion human is considered for the regime. The width of Palestine is between 15 and 100 km, and this small width makes any government severely limited. On the other hand, the Jewish population of Palestine between the establishment of the usurping regime and today has been between 600 thousand and slightly more than seven million people, who have settled relatively densely in the central to northern parts of Palestine. This population is small compared to the Arab populations of neighboring countries of Palestine and compared to the number of Palestinians, and therefore they are highly vulnerable in conflicts. Therefore, the two elements of geography and population in wars have faced the usurping regime with severe limitations and pushed it to adopt a decisive attack strategy in a short time. If Israel cannot defeat the opponent in a short time despite using a decisive attack, it will be defeated.
2- In the current war in Gaza, the short-term decisive attack strategy has been replaced by successive attacks in an unknown (and so far long) period of time, while the usurping regime in this war – compared to previous wars – is less affected by the two disadvantages of geography is facing. In this war, the Israeli army of several hundreds of thousands of people, with an area of ​​about 25,000 square kilometers, is involved with a militia force of several tens of thousands of people and in a geographical area of ​​360 square kilometers, and contrary to its military strategy, it has been involved in a war with an unknown period of time. Let us consider the distance between the area of ​​Egypt and Syria (during the Ramadan war) and the area of ​​Gaza, as well as the distance between the population of Egypt and Syria in 1973 and the current population of Gaza, so that the situation of the aggressor regime and the status of the resistance in Gaza will be revealed to us. The area of ​​Egypt and Syria is 1,195,588 square kilometers, 3321 times more than the area of ​​Gaza, and the population of Egypt and Syria at that time (about 43 million people) was 2.17 times more than the population of Gaza today.
3- Given that Israel’s military strategy is a decisive short-term attack, its answer to the question that this war will end in a few days, weeks, or months has strategic importance, but the Israelis do not really know the answer to this question. Why? Because the al-Aqsa storm has destroyed its deterrence, Israel is unable to leave the war scene without “effective achievement” and this is despite the fact that, unlike previous Arab wars, the other side cannot be calculated for Israel. The Israeli regime has been fighting for ten weeks and has not spared anything in fighting, and has used all air, land and sea power and committed every crime, but it has not reached a sign that Hamas has been fundamentally hit and weakened. How many more weeks or months should he fight to reach it? He does not know and therefore he is not able to manage his internal scene and answer the questions of his foreign supporters clearly. This issue has faced the Israeli regime with serious problems and limitations, and the result is the loss of trust in it in both domestic and foreign scenes. Therefore, while it is inevitable to continue the war, the element of “time” goes against him. The effect of the desperation of the Israeli army on the Palestinian side is another issue for it, that is, the longer the time for Israel to reach its goals, the greater the unity and self-confidence of the Palestinian side and its hope to overcome Israel.
4- The usurping regime made a strategic mistake in determining the goals of the Gaza war and acted in an inexperienced government manner. In the very first days, at the highest level, this regime has announced its goal of completely eradicating Hamas militarily and politically and freeing the prisoners with military power and without giving concessions, and has pledged itself to goals that are impossible for it to achieve. Accordingly, it causes more casualties every day and adds to its debts to the usurping Jews and its impotence, and it needs a way beyond the borders to get out of the predicament.
5- The usurper regime has caused problems for America, Europe, and some regional governments that are dependent on America. This problem appeared in their scattered opinions during the recent resolution of the Security Council. Now it has become difficult for the Western United Front to support the Gaza war. Supporting the war will most likely cost Biden a loss in the next US election. But withdrawing from this war also includes such a possibility for him. England and France also cannot choose between supporting the Gaza war and withdrawing from it without paying a heavy price. Therefore, it is in their interest that this war ends as soon as possible, and on the other hand, since the end of the war is equal to the victory of the resistance, coping with it has a heavy cost for them.