PNN – The Biden administration’s pressure on Israel to avoid a wider conflict with Hezbollah has forced Israel to enter into a series of low-intensity exchanges. For example, after the killing of 12 Israeli Druze children, White House spokesman John Kirby said that “from our perspective, there is no reason for this to lead to some kind of dramatic escalation.” In line with the United States’ desire to prevent an escalation, Israel responded by launching a targeted assassination operation against Hezbollah commander Fouad Shakar in July, which failed to defuse tensions.
Over the past eleven months, the world’s attention has been focused on the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces have been engaged in military operations against Hamas. While the Great War in Gaza is occupying the news space, Iran’s proxy force, Hezbollah, continues to carry out continuous airstrikes on northern Israel.
These attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. On Tuesday morning, Israel’s security cabinet voted to add the safe return of refugees to the official war goals. The vote came hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein that he was not confident of a ceasefire agreement and that “the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes is military action.”
The decision came after months of unsuccessful mediation efforts between Hochstein and Biden administration officials. Hochstein reportedly told Gallant and others on Tuesday that military action would not ensure the safety of Israeli civilians and would instead increase the risk of a wider regional war. However, since many of Hochstein’s previous mediation efforts have failed and there is no other solution to the crisis on Israel’s northern border, Israeli leaders have indicated they are compelled to downplay the threat.
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Zionist media: America gave Israel the green light for a massive attack on Lebanon
Hezbollah is getting stronger
The Biden administration’s pressure on Israel to avoid a wider conflict with Hezbollah has forced Israel to enter into a series of low-intensity exchanges. For example, after the killing of 12 Israeli Druze children, White House spokesman John Kirby said that “from our perspective, there is no reason for this to lead to some kind of dramatic escalation.” In line with the United States’ desire to prevent an escalation, Israel responded by launching a targeted assassination operation against Hezbollah commander Fouad Shakar in July, which failed to defuse tensions. While the White House may believe that limited engagement is better than widespread military action, this strategy prevents Israel from achieving its security goals. This approach also brings the region closer to a wider conflict as both sides gradually increase the scope of their attacks. This situation plays out exactly the scenario that the US government is desperately trying to prevent.
Furthermore, delaying the conflict would give Hezbollah time to build up its capabilities as Iran would inject more resources into it, further jeopardizing U.S. interests. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s 2024 Annual Threat Assessment Report states that Hezbollah “seeks to limit U.S. influence in Lebanon and the greater Middle East,” goals it shares with the Iranian government. The stronger Hezbollah becomes, the more capable it will be of threatening US allies, forces, and influence in the region. In addition to countering Hezbollah’s goals, US involvement and support can help contain and deter Iran and show Russia, China and other countries that the US still supports its allies and is willing to maintain its influence in the region.
Israel’s need for US support
If Israel begins military operations in southern Lebanon, it will need immediate arms sales and military aid to ensure the effectiveness of its forces in southern Lebanon and to keep its population safe. Due to the possibility of heavy air attacks by Hezbollah, the capacity of Gondab Ahinin and Falakhn Dawood interception systems will be saturated. In order to keep Israel’s air defense systems fully operational, the United States must provide the necessary military assistance so that Israel can purchase the critical equipment it needs.
To further support its ally, the US should deploy the necessary naval forces in the region to increase cooperation between the two militaries and support Israel’s sophisticated but vulnerable air defense systems. US Central Command should coordinate regional efforts to neutralize missiles and attacks by Iran and its proxies, similar to what the US did during Iran’s attack in April. Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s missile launch sites in August demonstrated Israel’s intelligence capabilities in anticipating a massive attack. To support this effort, the United States can provide passive support through enhanced detection and targeting capabilities through the Aegis and E-2 Hawkeye systems, as well as broader information sharing.