PNN – A prominent Turkish expert emphasized that Azerbaijan’s interest in participating in Western alliances has angered Moscow with Baku’s policies.
Recent tensions between Russia and the Republic of Azerbaijan have entered a more serious phase, and it seems that as these tensions continue, relations between the two countries will be pushed towards the end of diplomatic relations.
Last week’s Russian police operation against Azerbaijanis in the city of Yekaterinburg, which resulted in the deaths of two people and the arrest of several others, drew a sharp reaction from Baku. Following the incident, cultural events and official visits were canceled. Azerbaijani authorities have also detained about 10 Russian citizens in the country.
Professor Deniz Olu Kaynak, advisor to the president of Üsküdar University, professor of political science and international relations in Turkey, and member of the Oxford University Research Center, has assessed the background to the recent tensions between Moscow and Baku in an interview with a reporter from the Turkish website (Istanbul). The details of the interview are as follows:
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What does the tension between Russia and Azerbaijan mean?
Tensions between the two countries became apparent in December 2024, when an Azerbaijan Airlines plane was shot down by a Russian missile, severely straining relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. But the arrest of nearly 50 Azerbaijani citizens and the suspicious deaths of two of those detained in Yekaterinburg last week have effectively escalated the tension. The retaliatory Azerbaijani raid on the Sputnik office, the arrest of journalists, and the closure of Russian cultural centers indicate that relations are heading towards a critical point.
The background to this sharp rupture is not simply a series of diplomatic blunders or hasty reactions. In fact, the issue is much deeper and more strategic than that. Azerbaijan has long sought to create new security paths and alliances to move out of Moscow’s shadow and closer to the Western system.
Why is Azerbaijan so interested in new alliances and diplomatic turn away from Russia?
As the importance and activity of states in the international arena increases, so do the challenges. Instead of the classic concept of multilateralism, we now speak of “minilateralism.” In other words, instead of alliances based on large, fixed blocs, governments are seeking to form small coalitions focused on specific issues, with a limited scope and yet practical.
Baku also seems to be looking for opportunities and intends to establish itself in the new path that is being formed between India, Israel, the Gulf States and the United States. Although this is not a formal pact, it paves the way for a practical alliance.
Why have governments in recent decades sought various coalitions on a smaller scale?
Napoleon Bonaparte said: Alliances are like morning dew; they disappear with the first rays of the sun. And he was absolutely right. Alliances between states, whether temporary or institutionalized, are formed based on interests, and the moment these interests do not align, many political relationships known as friendship and brotherhood are set aside.
This is because governments prioritize their national interests over the overall goals of coalitions. When there are shifts in the global balance of power, we will see fundamental changes in coalitions. For example, when a new actor emerges with the ability to play a higher role in the international arena, governments move towards coalitions with that actor to secure their national interests. A government may also break away from a coalition it has been in for years based on national interests.
Events such as the current membership of some former Warsaw Pact members in NATO, the ability of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to absorb rival countries, and the UK’s exit from the European Union are all examples of these dynamic shifts in alliances. History is full of such shifts.
Former members of the Soviet Union are taking different paths today. In recent years, some former Soviet states have been integrating into the Western system and have become members of NATO. Some of these states are paying a heavy price for their lack of alliance with Russia, such as Georgia and Ukraine. Currently, we are witnessing rising tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia, and it looks like things could escalate.
How does Russia view Baku’s policy of turning towards the West?
It is clear that Russia will not tolerate a country that joins the alternative path within its borders (the borders of the Soviet Union) and moves towards an alliance with Western countries. It seems that Russia, like Georgia and Ukraine, is not seeking to control the Republic of Azerbaijan through force; Russia’s behavior shows that it is not currently inclined to create enemies and does not want to deal with Azerbaijan like Georgia and Ukraine.
Let us not forget that the Iran-Israel war has highlighted the critical importance of access to energy. The emergence of Azerbaijan as a major player in supplying Europe with gas could eliminate one of Russia’s most effective levers against the West. The trade corridor war is also of particular importance. The proposal of an alternative route through the Zangezur corridor, instead of the Armenian-Turkish route, puts Azerbaijan in a different foreign policy game. Therefore, the most important issue is that Baku, given its geopolitical position, may in the future provoke Moscow’s anger and even create the possibility of a new crisis similar to the one in Ukraine.