PNN – To neutralize the US-Israeli multilayered plan, Iran needs a hybrid two-pronged strategy (defensive-offensive) that focuses on energy diplomacy.
With the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves, Iran is at the center of global energy security equations. It has undeniable geostrategic dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. Therefore, any internal instability in Iran jeopardizes not only the country’s national security, but also the stability of the global energy market.
An examination of the distribution pattern of recent unrest in Iran shows a significant overlap with critical areas and the country’s major energy supply chain infrastructure. Accepting this overlap as an analytical input, this note seeks to explain the strategic goals of the United States and Israel in fueling this instability, with a particular focus on “energy diplomacy” and the “maximum pressure” approach of the Trump era.
Geographic Overlap Analysis: Unrest and Iran’s Energy Arteries
- Reports of the geographical spread of Iran’s internal unrest suggest that the protest hubs have not been randomly scattered, but rather have been concentrated near or along vital energy infrastructure points. These points can be grouped into four broad categories:
- Oil and nuclear production regions (Khuzestan and Bushehr): Cities such as Ahvaz, Abadan, Mahshahr, and Bushehr host huge oil and gas fields, vital refineries, and nuclear facilities. Any disruption in these regions directly targets Iran’s energy production and exports.
- Energy Transport Corridors (Central and Northwest Pipelines): Many cities located along the route of national oil and gas pipelines have been the scene of conflict. The goal is to create vulnerability in the arteries that transport resources from the west to the center and north of the country.
- Vital export ports (Strait of Hormuz): Places like Bandar Abbas and Kharg Island are gateways for Iran’s energy exports and control the Strait of Hormuz. Creating insecurity in these areas has immediate implications for global energy security.
- Large consumer cities (Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz): Instability in major metropolises targets the country’s macroeconomic and political stability and complicates crisis management.
- This dispersion map is not a random pattern, but rather a design that aligns with the geopolitical and energy goals of Iran’s rivals.
Washington and Tel Aviv’s Grand Incentives: Three Axes of Strategic Pressure
- The motivations of America and Israel can be analyzed in a three-dimensional framework in which energy serves as a central axis:
- First axis: Neutralizing the nuclear and missile program
The primary goal is to undermine the technical and security foundations of Iran’s nuclear program. Widespread internal crises divert Iran’s human, financial, and security resources toward crisis management and reduce focus on advancing sensitive technologies. Increasing the costs of protecting nuclear facilities in unstable conditions also increases potential security vulnerabilities. Disrupting Iran’s nuclear program and preventing it from achieving full nuclear fuel capability (even if declared peaceful) is a consistent and explicit goal of the United States and Israel. They believe that this technology could lead to nuclear weapons and upset the balance of power.
- Axis Two: Neutralizing and Changing the Behavior of the Resistance Axis
By creating an “axis of resistance” from Baghdad to Beirut, Iran has created a corridor of influence and arms transfers. Instability at the center of this axis (Tehran) weakens the entire network and disrupts its coordination. The ultimate goal is to reduce Iran’s ability to play a role as a strategic competitor in the Middle East. Creating internal unrest forces the government to focus on domestic problems and reduces its resources and energy to support regional allies (the axis of resistance). Weakening the center of this network (Tehran) disrupts the coordination and effectiveness of its entire network. This directly benefits Iran’s regional rivals, such as Israel.
Targeting the energy supply chain and imposing isolation
This axis is the core of the present analysis. The strategy is focused on two simultaneous goals:
Putting pressure on the oil economy: Disruption in energy regions directly targets the government’s foreign exchange earnings. The reduction in oil revenues undermines the public budget, the financial capacity of domestic and regional projects, and ultimately the stability of the government.
- Creating a risk to global energy security and isolating Iran: Demonstrating Iran’s vulnerability in its most sensitive energy areas sends a clear message to global markets and energy consumers that investing in or relying on Iranian energy is high risk. This isolates Iran from participating in the global energy market and creates space for competitors to replace it.
Trump’s Behaviorism: The Dream of “Energy Domination” and the Centrality of “Isolating Iran”
Trump’s policies towards Iran have the strategic goal of “isolating and controlling Iran’s energy resources.” Evidence of this approach can be seen in the following three actions:
- A) Economic war and oil embargo: The withdrawal from the JCPOA and the launch of the “maximum pressure campaign”, the imposition of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, and the targeting of the “shadow fleet” were a direct attempt to cut off the revenue artery and dominate Iran’s energy flow.
- B) Military threats and encouragement of domestic instability: Trump kept the military option always present with threatening language and the deployment of the fleet. At the same time, the explicit and public support for the protesters and encouragement to “take over institutions” indicated the exploitation of domestic instability as a low-cost lever to increase erosive pressure on the Iranian regime, creating unmanageable crises within Iran to strengthen Washington’s bargaining position. The intensification of the livelihood and energy crisis makes society prone to protests and places the government in a political-security impasse that will lead to a change in the behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- C) Sending a message of energy isolation: The keyword of Trump’s policy was to cut off Iran’s connection to the global trade and energy network. The threat of a 25% tariff on any deal with Iran, even for allies, expressed a radical determination to remove Iran from the global energy game and control these resources in favor of Washington-backed regional rivals.
Iran’s Strategies: From Smart Defense to Counterattack
To neutralize this multi-layered plot, Iran needs a hybrid two-pronged strategy (defensive-offensive) that focuses on energy diplomacy.
- A) Defensive axis: neutralizing internal threats and stabilizing the country
- Securing critical infrastructure: Investing heavily in passive defense, cybersecurity, and physical protection of oil, gas, refineries, and power plants, especially in sensitive provinces such as Khuzestan and Bushehr, will safeguard supply chain security and national revenue.
- Economic diversification and reduction of dependence on oil: Accelerating the development of non-oil sectors such as industry, agriculture, and tourism, as well as expanding petrochemicals and exporting higher value-added products to reduce vulnerability to sanctions.
- Elite cohesion and public opinion management: Creating national consensus among factions around the axis of “energy security = national security” and presenting a clear and coherent narrative to counter the enemy’s psychological warfare and neutralize excuses for intervention.
- B) Offensive Axis: Active Energy Diplomacy and Deterrence
– The necessity of the presence of the Global Resistance Front in order to free ourselves from the psychological traps of American operations: Given the support of various resistance movements around the world, including Iraq (Kata’ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization, Harakat al-Nujaba, etc.), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen’s Ansar Allah, Hamas, and Palestinian Jihad, and the people of various countries including Pakistan, India, and Brazil, etc., all of America’s basic energy interests around the world are being targeted and existentially threatened.