PNN – In an article, referring to the results of a new poll for the upcoming US elections, Newsweek reported the lead of Donald Trump, the former president of this country, over the current president, Joe Biden, in most of the battleground states.
According to Pakistan News Network’s report from this publication, the results of a recent poll in five battleground states indicate a tight competition between Biden and Trump, and it seems that Biden is lagging behind in this poll.
According to this publication, although Biden has achieved victories against Trump in some recent national and state polls, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election depends on a handful of key states.
In 2016, Trump was able to win the votes of the battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
However, in 2020, Biden once again turned them in favor of the Democrats, and in the two states of Georgia and Arizona, which were strongly in favor of the Republicans, the votes were in his favor.
According to the US Constitution, the outcome of the presidential election is decided by the Electoral College, and a certain number of electoral votes are determined for each state. A presidential candidate must win 270 electoral votes to win, and winning the national popular vote is not decisive.
For example, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, but like then US President George W. Bush in 2000, the electoral votes of several battleground states led to his eventual victory.
Newsweek continued to look at the number of electoral votes of each state and compared the results of recent polls of each of them;
Arizona with 11 electoral votes
In the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump in the state of Arizona by a margin of only 0.3 percentage points (49.4% to 49.1%). It was the first time that a Democratic presidential candidate won in this state since 1996.
But for now, the polls in Arizona appear to favor Trump. According to polls, Trump is about 4.5 points ahead of Biden in Arizona.
This publication has reminded that so far, none of the polls conducted in the state of Arizona this year indicate that Biden has a lead over Trump.
Georgia with 16 electoral votes
The state of Georgia, like Arizona, was one of the other battlegrounds that led to Biden’s victory in 2020, and for the first time since 1992, it witnessed the trend of its residents towards the Democrats. Four years ago, Biden was able to defeat Trump by a margin of 0.2 percent (49.5 percent against 49.3 percent).
However, in 2024, things seem to be reversed. According to recent polls, Trump currently has nearly 49.7 votes compared to Biden’s 45.5.
Michigan with 15 electoral votes
This state was one of the other key states in the 2020 elections, where the current US president was able to beat Trump.
But now it seems that Trump is more popular, according to the polls, the former Republican president won nearly 47.4 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 44.1.
Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes
Pennsylvania was one of the states that supported Trump in 2016, but turned to Biden in 2020. Since 1988, this state has been among the Democratic battleground states, and even in 2016, it turned its back on the Republicans. It seems that even in 2024, this state where Biden was born will still be favored by the Democrats.
According to polls, Biden is ahead of his Republican rival in Pennsylvania by 0.5 percentage points (46.5% to 46%).
Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes
Wisconsin narrowly won Trump in 2016, but swung to Biden in 2020. Before the 2016 election, the state had gone Republican in every election since 1984, but in 2020 the tide turned in favor of Biden. Nevertheless, Trump once again seems to have surpassed Biden by a narrow margin of 48.4% against 47.4%.
What are the other potential battleground states?
Some political analysts believe that the states of Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Minnesota can also become a competitive field in the 2024 elections, and it is predicted that Florida and North Carolina will lean towards the Republicans, while Nevada and Minnesota, which are historically supportive Democrats have been, remain on the same front.
Newsweek has recalled that North Carolina and Florida voted in favor of Trump in 2016 and 2020, while Nevada and Minnesota voted for Democrats.
However, according to the polls conducted, Trump is ahead of Biden in Florida, North Carolina and even Nevada, and Biden has only surpassed Trump in Minnesota.
The 2024 US presidential election, which is scheduled to be held in November, has been introduced as the biggest political risk in the world this year.