PNN – Saudi Arabia in post-Assad Syria is like a player forced to move on multiple chessboards simultaneously.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the emergence of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as the dominant actor in Damascus transformed the field of competition between regional and trans-regional actors into a space similar to geopolitical chess. In these circumstances, Saudi Arabia, as one of the traditional pillars of the Arab world, is trying to navigate between two contradictory poles: on the one hand, it is cautiously approaching the new regime in Damascus, because its strategies and directions are still shrouded in ambiguity. On the other hand, it fears that its silence or inaction will create a power vacuum that rivals such as Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Israel will quickly fill. This contradiction is at the core of Riyadh’s challenges in post-Assad Syria.
In this context, Saudi Arabia is trying to stay at the heart of the developments in Syria, take the pulse of the changes, and establish itself as an inevitable player in the future equations of the Levant. But the key question is: Can Riyadh avoid indirectly strengthening its rivals while simultaneously engaging with the Damascus regime? This requires traversing a terrain where every step is mined.
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Strategic Competitions: From Proxies to Transregional Powers
The competition in Syria today is a multi-layered arena in which each player, using their own tools, tries to seize a share of power. In this arena, Saudi Arabia is forced to deal with several fronts simultaneously. First, by relentlessly supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) and controlling vital areas of northern Syria, including Afrin, Aleppo, and the Euphrates Shield, Ankara has not only created a buffer zone on its borders, but also, through these proxies, has extended its influence to the heart of Syria’s geography. This strategy shifts the balance of power in the north in Turkey’s favor and overshadows Saudi Arabia’s presence in eastern Syria—especially in the Arab-populated areas of Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa. Riyadh knows full well that every square meter of Syrian territory that falls under the Turkish flag reduces Saudi Arabia’s traditional sphere of influence in the Arab world.
Saudi Arabia’s Strategy: Combining Economics and Diplomacy
To overcome this dangerous spiral, Riyadh has adopted a three-pronged strategy based on economic, tribal, and security axes. Saudi Arabia is trying to use the economy as a soft weapon. The ruins left by 12 years of civil war have turned Syria into a country in need of a massive financial injection. Taking advantage of this weakness, Riyadh has turned generous promises of reconstruction assistance into a tool to win over the Damascus transitional government. This strategy has two key advantages: First, it makes Riyadh an inevitable player in the reconstruction process, and second, through economic leverage, it makes the international legitimacy of Syria’s terrorist regime conditional on its alignment with its interests.
On the other hand, in the eastern regions of Syria – especially Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah and Raqqa – Arab tribes have become key players in the pivotal equations. By establishing direct contact with the chiefs of these tribes and providing financial and logistical support, Saudi Arabia is trying to create informal but powerful bases of influence.
Structural challenges; Riyadh’s high walls of progress
Despite its diverse tools, Saudi Arabia faces obstacles that are structural in nature. Short-term engagement with the Syrian transitional government may provide room for diplomatic maneuver, but strengthening it in the long term could become a nightmare for Riyadh in the future.
Competition with Qatar is also considered a kind of proxy war in the media and lobbies for Riyadh. Although Riyadh enjoys superior political and economic support in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Qatar is trying to make its narrative of the developments in Syria prevail by using international media such as Al Jazeera and investing in civil society institutions.