PNN – The prominent theorist of political science and international relations Stephen Walt in a note in the Foreign Policy magazine examined the consequences of the Gaza war and the writing of the world after the end of this war will be different from before.
According to the International group of Pakistan News Network, Stephen Walt, a prominent theorist of political science and international relations, in a note in the Foreign Policy magazine, examined the consequences of the Gaza war and the writing of the world after the end of this war will be different from before.
Walt writes: Will the latest war in Gaza have far-reaching consequences? I think that as a rule, conflicting geopolitical events are usually balanced by various kinds of countervailing forces, and events in one small part of the world have wide echoes elsewhere. “Crisis and wars happen, but usually calmer minds prevail and limit their consequences.”
“However, this is not always the case, and perhaps the current war in Gaza is one of these exceptions,” Walt stated. Of course, I don’t think we’re on the brink of World War III, in fact I’d be surprised if the current war turns into a wider regional conflict. Although I do not completely reject this possibility, so far, none of the governments or groups on the sidelines of this conflict (Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, Turkey, etc.) have shown any desire for a direct conflict, and American officials have also tried to limit this conflict. Since a regional conflict would be even more costly and dangerous, we should all hope that these efforts will succeed, but even if the war remains confined to Gaza and ends soon, there will be significant consequences around the world. had.”
This university professor adds: “To understand what the wider consequences of this war will be, it is important to recall the general geopolitical situation of the world, just before the October 7 surprise attack by Hamas. Before the attack by Hamas, the US and its NATO allies were waging a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Their goal was that Ukraine could push Russia out of the territories it conquered after February 2022 and weaken Russia to the point that it would not be able to do so in the future. But the war did not go well: Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has stalled, and it seems that the balance of military power is gradually shifting in Russia’s favor, and hopes that Kiev will be able to regain its lost territories either by force of arms or through negotiations are fading. »
In the Middle East, the Biden administration was trying to achieve a difficult diplomatic goal: to dissuade Saudi Arabia from getting closer to China and give Riyadh some form of security guarantees, possibly allowing the Saudis access to sensitive nuclear technology. for Riyadh to normalize its relations with Israel. However, it was not clear that this agreement would reach a final result, and critics had warned that ignoring the Palestinian issue and turning a blind eye to the increasingly violent acts of the Israeli government in the Palestinian territories would eventually lead to an explosion.
Walt writes: “First, this war put an important obstacle in the way of American efforts to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations (which was undoubtedly one of the goals of Hamas). Of course, this obstacle may not be permanent because the initial motives behind this agreement still remain and will continue to exist after the Gaza war. Even in this case, the obstacles to this agreement have clearly increased, and the higher the number of casualties, the higher these obstacles will be.”
Second, this war will interfere with America’s efforts to reduce the cost of its time and attention in the Middle East and focus its attention and efforts on East Asia. Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Adviser, in an article published in Foreign Affairs just before the Hamas attack – and now infamous – claimed that an orderly approach by the US government in the Middle East would increase the resources needed for other global priorities. and reduces the risk of new conflicts in the Middle East. October showed that this was not exactly the result that was actually achieved.
The longer this war continues, the more these gaps will widen and it will show the diplomatic weakness of Europe, if not its lack of character, and also weaken a bigger goal, that is, the unification of the democracies of the world in the framework of a strong and effective alliance.
This theorist stated: “There was already a big gap between the US and the West’s view of the Ukraine crisis and the approach of many southern countries whose leaders clearly did not support Russia’s attack on Ukraine, but from what they saw as double standards and the selective attention of the elites. Israel’s extreme reaction to Hamas attacks widens this gap, partly because in the rest of the world, compared to America and Europe, there is much more empathy for the general suffering of the Palestinian people. The more the war goes on and the more Palestinian civilians are killed, the more this sympathy increases, especially when the US government and some prominent European politicians have such one-sided support for Israel. As a senior G7 diplomat told the Financial Times last month: “We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South. Everything we had done in this part of the world [on Ukraine] has been lost. Forget about international law, forget about world order. They won’t even listen to that anymore.” Maybe this description is a little exaggeration, but it is not wrong.