PNN – The possible competition between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the elections is the first time in the past 70 years that the records of two presidents are put to a referendum.
Pakistan News Network; On November 5, Americans will go to the polls to choose the next president, while it seems that the two main candidates of this competition will be Joe Biden of the Democratic Party against Donald Trump of the Republican Party, as it was four years ago.
Although the intra-party stage of the election has not yet ended, it seems that Donald Trump’s candidacy is certain. If Trump and Biden face each other, for the first time after 70 years, two candidates will face each other and put their records in the White House to the referendum.
After losing the presidential election 4 years ago, Donald Trump tried to annul the result of the election. He is now facing federal charges in this regard and attempted sedition in the United States.
In contrast, Biden’s presidency has been characterized by high inflation, scattered riots in the world, including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the West Asian region.
Many polls show that both Biden and Trump are unpopular, and this time the American election will be a fight over who is less unpopular, instead of a contest over which candidate is more popular.
Among the other noteworthy points in this election is that, unlike previous rounds, the November voting this year will not be a referendum on only Biden’s record, but the records of the two presidents in various fields, including economy, foreign policy, immigration, and other domestic issues will be compared.
In most polls in America, Donald Trump has a slight lead over Joe Biden. Of course, some polls present Biden as the winner of the competition.
Recently, in order to provide a more comprehensive indicator of the performance of these two politicians in the polls, the Economist has compared their average performance in important polls that have been conducted so far.
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The results of this research show that Donald Trump has recorded a better performance than Joe Biden with an average of 2.3 percent advantage. The important thing is that in the 6 gray states on which the outcome of the US election depends (the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Trump is 3.8% ahead of Biden on average.
Trump’s performance in the polls was not so favorable in any of the two election contests in which he participated. Is it time for America to prepare for Donald Trump’s second term?
The answer to this question is still negative. There are 9 months left until the elections, and if we look at the issue from a historical perspective, the polls that are conducted before the summer of the election year have always been a poor predictor of the final result of the election. In the 2016 election, when Trump and Hillary Clinton were competing, the polls gave a wrong view of the future president even a few days before the election.
Despite this, it should also be kept in mind that the favorability of the polls in favor of Trump at this point is more decisive than the candidates of the past eras who enter the arena as challengers to the incumbent president.
The results of the polls conducted last month regarding the competition between Biden and Trump have had a wide range of differences. In some polls, Trump is ahead of Biden by 8%, and in others, Biden is behind Trump by 6%.
An advantage of using an index called the mean is that it neutralizes the effect of outliers like the one mentioned above. Of course, surveys that consider the average also differ from each other in terms of method and degree of accuracy.
Democrats who support Joe Biden say about the results of the polls that have been conducted so far that in the studies that are known to have the most accuracy, Joe Biden has performed better than Trump, and on the other hand, institutions with weaker performance consider Trump to be the winner.
The Economist used a method in his research that gave more weight to surveys with a larger sample size and more recently than other surveys with a smaller sample size and a longer time interval. With this method, Donald Trump is 2.3% ahead of Biden.
But if the average is calculated unweighted, so that polls from six months ago have the same weight as polls from last week, then Biden is ahead of Trump by 0.2 percentage points.
To all these complications, it should be added that the results of the polls, at best, reflect the public’s opinion about a candidate and can predict the superiority of popular votes. But we know that in the American elections, because the president is elected based on the electoral votes and not the direct votes of the people, getting a higher vote does not guarantee victory in the elections. For example, in 2000 and 2016, Republican Party candidates won elections despite having less popular votes.