PNN – The day after the war, in addition to the collapse of the American and Israeli dream, will reveal a bitter truth to the sheikhdoms.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, Al-Mayadeen Network has examined the strategic developments and radical changes in regional and international equations in an article in the morning of the war, the content of which is as follows.
The Early Downgrade of America’s Goals; From Regime Change in Iran to Opening the Strait of Hormuz
As the US-Israeli War on Iran enters its sixth week, what we had previously estimated before the war began is now out in the open. The war was not as swift and decisive as Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped, and the initial attack on Iran’s leadership did not create a change in the regime or even a leadership vacuum. Also, the streets of Iran did not move against the regime, but rather a massive popular movement against the aggressors.
The Decline of the American Empire
Also, while the goal of the US-Israeli war against Iran was to overthrow the regime in that country, this goal has become the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war. So rather than US and Israeli efforts to launch a quick victory over Iran as the beginning of global and regional dominance, it seems that the current war could be recorded as a turning point in the decline of the US “empire” and its agents in the region, especially the Israeli agent.
The ongoing war with Iran is not a limited confrontation, as the warmongers in Washington and Tel Aviv thought, but will have wide-ranging regional and global consequences. In addition to the direct military dimension of the war, the results of the war will reflect on the balance of power in the Middle East, the control of trade and energy routes, and the formation of the world order in light of intense competition between the great powers.
In this confrontation, the Zionist-American aggression targeted Iran’s military capabilities, and the extent of the damage inflicted is unknown. However, the continued targeting of American and Israeli positions (at a distance of about 2,000 kilometers) by Iranian forces with ballistic missiles and military drones, and the penetration of some of them into all warning, countermeasure and air defense systems, and the hitting and destruction of many targets, refute the American-Israeli narratives of the almost complete destruction of Iran’s missile capabilities.
Also, the downing of a number of American aircraft by Iranian air defenses negates American claims of control over Iranian airspace. Iran’s control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also calls into question Trump’s narrative of the destruction of Iran’s naval fleet.
Iran has been able to build ballistic missile systems and drones and establish a nuclear infrastructure. Also, regardless of the narrative of total destruction, Iranian forces have demonstrated a remarkable ability to defend, attack, control, and dominate, even after about a month and a half of war.
The operational failure to achieve a quick victory has led Trump to consider engaging deeper in the war, threatening and preparing for ground operations on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export point, and attempting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. This suggests that Washington is seeking to establish broader strategic control in the region, particularly around key energy routes, and to try to control the flow of Iranian oil.
Strategic Developments after the War; the Collapse of American-Zionist Dreams
Meanwhile, the United States, Israel, and Iran are seeking to consolidate strategic developments in the aftermath of the war with Iran. In light of America’s competition with China and Russia, and the strategic and economic interests that bind these two countries to Iran, especially in the fields of energy and military cooperation.
The United States believes that the confrontation with Iran is not just a regional issue, but part of a broader conflict over the leadership of the world system. This means that the results of the war, if the United States loses to Iran, will lead to the decline of American global hegemony and the strengthening of two global powers, Russia and China, and a regional power, Iran.
However, Israel’s main goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, ballistic missile system, and defeat its alliance with the axis of resistance by overthrowing the Iranian regime or dismembering the Iranian government and turning it into a failed state.
Israel believes that not overthrowing the Iranian regime means that the threat of a survival of the regime will remain, which will seek to recover and develop its capabilities in the light of military experience. Meanwhile, the United States sees the war from a broader perspective, from the perspective of Israeli security, and through the attempt to replace a hostile regime with a regime loyal to it, regardless of its ideology.
In the case of Iran, from the American perspective, distancing Iran from partnership with China and Russia is possible only by changing Iran’s position in the international system; from a system that seeks to develop its partnership with China and Russia, to a system that integrates into the economic and political system led by the United States.
To achieve this goal, the United States believed that moving from the phase of destroying Iran’s military capabilities to the next phase, which would target the Iranian economy in all its components, might force the Iranian regime to surrender unconditionally. However, the signs are not going according to US speculation, and Iran is likely to engage in a protracted war of attrition and surrender is not an option.
Americans and Zionists admit defeat in their goals against Iran
After about six weeks, various American and Israeli circles are acknowledging that the goals set have not been achieved. The Iranian regime has not collapsed or lost control, and there is no loyal American alternative from within. Iran still has enriched uranium, missile launches continue, Iranian forces control the Strait of Hormuz, and the war is spreading from Lebanon to Iraq, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf states. The economic and geopolitical consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rising level of opposition to the war in the United States, and Trump’s declining popularity ahead of the midterm elections, are also growing.
After a quick resolution of the war, the United States and Israel sought to achieve a strategic transformation in their favor, in which the Iranian regime would be replaced by a US-friendly regime, one that would distance itself from Russia and China and move closer to a US-dominated global system, and Israel would become a central part of a regional system that would have broader influence and a greater place in the Middle East.
But Iran’s pattern of persistence, defense and attack, and the ability to control and dominate, and popular support for the regime, has thwarted the Zionist-American goals so far, and has also destroyed their vision for the day after the war.
This may lead Trump to one of two options: first, to claim victory without any fundamental changes, withdrawing his forces from the region, and leaving Israel alone in a war of attrition with Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and other fronts. Second, the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran and its allies on the other, engage in a protracted war of attrition, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, and energy facilities targeted, which would lead to major economic consequences and increase the level of regional and international involvement in the war in various forms.
But regardless of Trump’s final decision, both options are bitter for Washington, and the consequences of neither option serve the strategic developments the United States seeks in the postwar era. The United States’ image in the world would be severely damaged and its standing on the world stage would be diminished, which could encourage China to take action on Taiwan, whet Russia’s appetite for resolving the war in Ukraine and perhaps expanding its military involvement.
The bitter truth revealed to the sheikhdoms
At the regional level, Israel’s status and power will also decline, and the Gulf states’ trust in the United States and its Israeli ally, which has embroiled everyone in an unpredictable war, will decrease.
The decline in relations between the United States and the Gulf states on the one hand, and the decline in the willingness of the Gulf states and regional states to normalize relations with Israel on the other, would be a significant strategic development, especially if the war against Iran fails to achieve its goals, and the United States and Israel prove to be a burden on the Gulf states and the region, and even a cause of global instability.
In general, an objective reading of the post-war period requires the Gulf states to understand that relations with the United States and the presence of American military bases on their territory have not protected them, but rather have made them parties to a war in which they have no interest.
Also, the Persian Gulf and regional countries will reconsider their submission to American domination, which sought to prepare the regional environment for Israeli domination, and will consider managing a calm strategic dialogue between all components of the region based on new rules and principles, in which Iran, along with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, will be an active element.