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Friday, November 22, 2024

The difference between Trump 2016 and 2024

PNN – From the point of view of an international relations expert, “Donald Trump” no longer has the power to arouse his supporters as he did eight years ago, although the possibility of electoral tensions is not out of mind if the Republican candidate is declared defeated and the fraud claim is raised again.

Millions of Americans will go to the polls next Tuesday to choose the next president of their country, except for the seventy million people who voted early by mail or in person. The 60th US presidential election has become a breathtaking competition in the shadow of developments such as the withdrawal of “Joe Biden” from the competition and his replacement by “Kamala Harris”, the stubborn attempt of “Donald Trump” to return to the White House and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Who will end up in the White House will affect many issues from domestic politics in America to international competition, global trade, developments in the Middle East, etc. in some way. In the following interview, you will read the answer of “Niknam Arshadnia”, an expert on international issues, to the researcher’s questions in this connection:

Trump is a phenomenon of the 21st century

What do you predict about the US election process in the coming days? Will Harris be able to extend the tenure of the Democrats in the White House due to the electoral shock of Biden’s resignation? Or will Trump break Harris’ slight lead in the polls in the coming days?

Trump is the biggest phenomenon of the 21st century. The emergence and gaining power of an extremist person with economic nationalist ideas (economic mercantilism) in the world’s largest democracy and capitalism indicates the beginning of great changes in the world of politics and the change of global discourse from “globalization” to “localization”.

Accordingly, before discussing the possibility of Trump returning to the Oval Office of the White House, it cannot be hidden that Trump has become an important part of power and politics in America. The shoulder-to-shoulder and close competition with Kamala Harris speaks of the serious realities in America that Trump and his political discourse have a range of political and organizational support behind him.

Based on this, it is hypothesized that even Trump’s failure to gain power is not a sign of his failure, and that he was able to draw a large part of the American voters towards his thoughts and discourse is a sign of Trump’s success.

The support of some prominent figures of the Republican Party to Harris is effective in reducing the probability of Trump’s victory

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More than 70 million Americans voted early

So, in practice, the Democrats will have a difficult time defeating Trump.

From the point of view of some analysts, this issue had the capacity to create space and create alienation to weaken Trump. Of course, the current situation does not mean that Harris has a lower credibility and status than Trump in terms of intellectual and discourse in the election contests and among the American voters. The problem is that Harris’ ability and functional background had the capacity to marginalize Trump in the election campaigns.

Regarding the possibility of Trump’s superiority, it should be noted that Trump’s speech and electoral performance have no new attraction for American voters. In a more technical analysis, one should pay attention to the 2016 election and Trump’s competition with Hillary Clinton. In that period of the competition, the wave of political and popular support for Trump from the beginning of the election campaign to the election day showed the fact that the closer we got to the day of voting, the growing wave of support for Trump rose and Trump was able to win the necessary electoral votes.

In those days, Trump was able to appear as a new and tradition-breaking figure with different thoughts and ideas as a politician with special behavioral characteristics and an aggressive approach towards rival candidates. In the current situation, Trump is no longer an innovative politician. The American people and the world have witnessed Trump’s political behavior.

Trump does not have the negotiating power of diplomats

If each of the democratic and republican candidates wins, what will be the effect on Tehran-Washington relations and possible negotiations?

The relationship between Tehran and Washington is beyond the will of the president and the ruling faction in America. Anyway, the accumulation of contradictions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States over the last four decades confirms the fact that one cannot expect a change in the relations between the two countries simply by changing the political faction in the United States. Of course, experience has shown that the democratic trend in America is more inclined to solve the issue and challenge through negotiation and dialogue. The successful experience of the negotiations between the two countries during the Obama era and the economic openings that took place during that time are considered as reliable experience.

On the other hand, Trump has shown that he does not have the ability and power of the Democrats’ diplomacy to advance negotiations and solve challenges through dialogue. The most obvious manifestation of this issue was the deadlock in Trump’s talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which ended with a symbolic meeting and no tangible results. Accordingly, considering the experience of Trump’s procedure towards Iran and the intensification of the cruel system of sanctions at that time, the expectation of new negotiations with Trump’s America, at least on paper, will be less likely than America under President Harris.

Except for the Obama era, the Zionists had the full support of both the Democratic and Republican parties

What effect does the American election have on Washington’s support for the Zionist regime and the fate of Middle East conflicts?

In the analysis of Middle East conflicts and Israel’s aggressive behavior, the main role should not be given to developments outside the region. Israel’s political past is indicative of the fact that the Zionists pursue territorial expansionism out of war and crisis, and in this regard, no matter how weak their surrounding environment is, they develop expansionism in the same proportion. Now, in this context, the international support, especially the American support, has a facilitating role for the Zionists in pursuing their goals.

If we factor in Obama’s presidency, during the rest of the period, Israel has had the decisive support of the power factions in America. On this basis and contrary to media propaganda, it does not seem that the results of the elections in the United States have a significant impact on the Middle East conflict and the continuation or cessation of Israeli aggression.

The possibility of a repeat election riot is less than before

In case of Trump’s defeat, is it possible to have an election riot?

In relation to the possibility of Trump’s failure and election riots in the United States, it should be noted that due to the antagonistic atmosphere that has formed in the field of American politics, the possibility of electoral tensions in the United States is not far from expected; Trump and his supporters are raising the issue of fraud by taking an aggressive and forward approach. However, it seems that according to the experience of January 6, 2020, the probability of election riots is less if Trump loses.

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