PNN – Following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election on November 15, “Foreign Policy” published a report on the possible consequences of his foreign policy in areas such as Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, in this Foreign Policy report written by Stephen Walt, referring to the internal disagreements of the Republicans regarding some key issues, especially China, it is stated: Realists want the US to shift its focus from European affairs (and perhaps the Middle East) to Asia and strengthen its commitments to support Taiwan. At the same time, isolationists and libertarians seek to ignore all the crises and pay attention to the internal affairs of their country.
The author of this article continued: It is not clear to what extent Trump intends to pay attention to foreign affairs. The people who voted for Trump are not interested in the expansion of democracy, they do not care about human rights, they are extremely skeptical of free trade, they want to reduce the number of foreigners in their country, and they are worried about international organizations.
The coming trade war: It is possible that Trump’s talk of imposing excessive tariffs is just a bluff and better informed people will dissuade him from doing so. Trump has not shown much interest in the modern economy, and it is predicted that if a serious trade war starts, it will have many unwanted negative consequences, such as an increase in the budget deficit and inflation.
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Fear in the West: Trump and the possibility of NATO dissolution.
Alliance or rift with Europe: Trump does not consider America’s European allies a strategic asset and has long been openly hostile to the European Union. According to him, Brexit is a great idea because the EU can negotiate with a single voice on economic issues, which makes it difficult for the US. The Republican Party opposes almost any form of regulation, and people like Elon Musk oppose tougher European rules on digital privacy.
Trump will ignore Brussels and focus on bilateral relations with European countries, where the US is in a much stronger position than them, and will take various actions to weaken or divide the European Union.
Counting NATO members: Trump can decide to completely withdraw from NATO, considering that this organization is still popular among the majority of Americans and its official withdrawal will face many reactions from the Ministry of Defense and some Republicans in Congress. Most likely, Trump will keep the US in this pact, while constantly blaming the Europeans for their lack of action and forcing them to buy more weapons from the US.
The end of the war in Ukraine: It is very likely that Trump will cut off US aid and consider Ukraine as a problem for the Europeans. He certainly won’t seek to pass another big bailout in Congress, and the public will support him. Perhaps Trump’s only concern is that Russia will occupy other parts of Ukraine and the American president will appear weak and naive. But if Russia accepts the permanent partition of Ukraine and its nominal independence, which no longer seeks NATO membership, most Americans will consider this issue over and move on. Full credit for ending the war will also go to Trump.
Continuation of tensions in the Middle East: One should not be under the illusion that the situation in this region will improve with the arrival of Trump. During the first term of his presidency, he provided all the needs of Israel, withdrew from the JCPOA, and did not shed a single tear for the war-stricken people of Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. Although he may refuse to help Israel attack Iran (especially if Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman advises him to do so), Israel will still have the green light to eradicate or expel the Palestinians.
Bipartisan hostility to China: Trump’s advisers differ on how to deal with China, and it is impossible to speculate on how the Trump administration will handle the relationship. He will certainly be tough on trade issues and is unlikely to lift restrictions on chips and other forms of technology transfer to Chinese companies. Hostilities with China are perhaps one of the few issues on which both the Republican and Democratic parties agree, making it harder to imagine a grand bargain between Washington and Beijing.
However, it seems that Trump will also clash with America’s Asian allies. He has previously expressed doubts about supporting Taiwan in the event of a direct Chinese attack or threat. Perhaps in his second term as president, some of the Asian achievements of the Biden administration will be lost, which will definitely be welcomed by Beijing.