PNN – This fall’s elections in America will determine to a large extent what scenarios the 14th government, which has promised to lift sanctions through negotiations with the West, will face in practice.
After the task of the 14th presidential election was determined and the victory of “Massoud Al-Madijian” in the electoral competition, many are waiting to see how he will fulfill his promise to weld the links of nuclear negotiations with the aim of lifting the sanctions.
On the other hand, in early November 2024, the Americans are supposed to know the key holder of the White House for the next four years, and this means that the fate of this country’s elections will largely affect the coordinates of the negotiations desired by the head of the 14th administration.
In this context, “Javad Haqgou” expert in international relations and associate professor of Tehran University answered the questions:
Considering that the US election campaign is approaching its critical days, what is your prediction for the future of this competition?
First of all, I must point out that definite prediction in such cases has no place in the field of science and knowledge.
Basically, prediction is either the work of the innocent or the work of people who are connected to the innocent, and in other cases, mostly ignorant, ignorant and deceitful people claim definite predictions about such events.
In other words, one should seek to build the desired future and not take a passive approach to trends and events as much as possible. It is clear that people who do not make their future will be made for them. Here, I must point out that, of course, exploratory approaches in this branch of knowledge seek to discover the future, and this discussion of mine is more focused on normative or mission-oriented approaches.
Regarding your very important question, based on this introduction, I must mention that due to the significant influence of the American government on the foreign policy of all countries in the world, including the Islamic Republic of Iran, depending on which person and thinking takes charge of affairs in the White House, various scenarios can be drawn about the future of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran; That is at a time when the new government of Iran, headed by Mr. Dr. Pezishkiyan, has come to work with an almost definite approach, and in a few weeks, the duties of the cabinet and members of the foreign policy team of the 14th government will be determined.
On the other hand, the election competition in the United States has reached its critical days. In a general view, we are faced with two parties, Democrats and Republicans in the United States, and each of these two parties have their own attitudes towards foreign policy.
Of course, in a more detailed view, the foreign policy of the United States can be traced in the form of several schools of Wilsonism, Jacksonism, Reaganism, and Hamiltonism, and each of these schools has its own prescriptions in the field of foreign policy.
Based on the understanding of this theoretical literature, it is possible to speak with a scientific and methodical attitude about the future of the foreign policy of the United States towards the countries of the world and Iran in particular. In the current situation and based on the polls, it seems that Trump’s chances in the competition with Biden are much higher. On this basis, much of the literature produced about the future of Iran’s foreign policy is also revolving on this axis, and it is assumed that what will happen with the arrival of Trump, but it seems that some developments and the occurrence of some events, especially “surprising events” It can turn the tide in favor of the Democrats. As you know, surprising is a term in the game of poker and from there it entered the knowledge of futurology.
Can you explain a little more about these surprising events?
You see, just as it is important to pay attention to the driving forces in knowing and understanding the future, surprises should not be neglected.
At a normal glance, we currently have two general scenarios about the US election race; First, the election and victory of the Republicans led by Trump, who demands his own prescriptions. Second, the victory of the Democrats, which the available evidence shows that Biden has not been able to strengthen this possibility.
Even assuming the replacement of someone like Kamala Harris, she still seems to have less chance of winning in the competition with Trump. But since years ago, there has always been a discussion about the entry of Obama’s wife, Mrs. “Michelle Obama” into the US presidential race, which, of course, has never been finalized.
Many Democrats believe that in this period, the only chance they have to defeat Trump is to face this option, which can actually change the course of the competition in favor of the Democrats by creating a flow-forming shock; A person who has his own personality apart from the personality of his wife and can attract a large part of the votes related to Marddin. The current reality of the American society indicates that the Democrats will have a great chance to stay in the White House if they turn over a card like Michelle Obama.
Assuming the realization of this event, what conditions will we face?
Before I want to explain this issue, I think it is necessary to explain a little about the scenario regarding Trump’s election and then we will enter into another scenario.
Some people think that the Trump of today is the Trump of a few years ago, and it is possible to speculate about his behavior and the government he will put in place based on the same old patterns, but I believe that Trump will return to the White House with significant changes.
Among the most important organizations discussed were the United States intelligence agencies, which play a very key role in various issues related to American foreign policy.
How and on what basis does this change of approach take place?
Basically, it is easier to negotiate with Jacksonists like Trump – with tolerance, of course – on some issues. The reason is that they like to directly enter into negotiations and not give brokering rights to others (here Europe, Russia and China) for no reason.
On this basis, by the way, the 14th government may have a better chance of reaching an agreement than the Rouhani government, assuming Trump’s return. It should not be forgotten that Trump has a very important unfulfilled wish. If he returns, he will try to finally fulfill his unfulfilled dream of winning the Nobel Peace Prize on the eve of his 80th birthday; An event that will definitely be a very important step in the resolution of the nuclear conflict with Iran by Trump.
Trump feels very weak and lacking in this matter compared to Obama. Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009. Some people may not accept the importance of this issue, but Trump’s personality coordinates exactly confirm this issue. For Trump’s special personality type, at the age of 80, nothing would be more attractive than receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
What are the characteristics of the alternative scenario if the Democrats win?
I am not going to argue about the good or bad of this issue, and that can be accurately assessed elsewhere. However, the evidence suggests that if this scenario is realized, whether with Biden or Harris or with Mrs. Obama, the possibility of finalizing the agreement between Iran and the United States over nuclear disputes will increase.
Of course, this issue is largely dependent on the stabilization of Iran’s regional power and the increase in people’s participation in the recent presidential elections compared to the previous one. Another point that should be mentioned in all these scenarios is the need to pay attention to the important developments in Europe; From the rise of the “Labor” party in England and the decline of the “conservatives” in this country to the increasing possibility of the “extreme right” gaining power in France and also in the Netherlands, which creates conditions with new coordinates.
Despite the contradictions between these events, the general outcome will move towards the resolution of Iran’s nuclear disputes with the West in the 14th government. I should mention here that we propose the possibility of finalizing the agreement is a function of various domestic, regional and international variables that need detailed explanation elsewhere.
In this situation, the great powers, both Eastern and Western, have come to the realization that the international system cannot afford to raise the temperature in the Iran nuclear debate anymore, because there will be a possibility of systemic anomie boiling over and intensifying; A situation with some kind of abnormality in the Middle East region, which, at least in the current world, is not favorable to China and Russia, nor favorable to the United States and Europe.