The prospect of peace in Yemen/permanent ceasefire is not so unlikely.
On September 23rd of this year, a delegation from Ansarullah, accompanied by representatives from Muscat, departed from Sana’a airport for Riyadh, marking Ansarallah’s first official envoy trip to Saudi Arabia since the start of the Yemen crisis. In a press release before leaving Sana’a, Mohammad Abd al-Salam, the head of Ansarullah’s negotiating team, stated that the purpose of this trip is to negotiate humanitarian and economic matters in pursuit of a comprehensive political solution.
Ansarullah has specific demands, and it is anticipated that the negotiations during this trip will cover issues such as the payment of oil and gas revenues, the lifting of the blockade on Hodeidah port, the reopening of Sana’a airport, salary payments for Ansarallah government employees, and the release of prisoners. An agreement on these matters could lead to a ceasefire, while failure to reach an agreement may result in a military solution.
This delegation’s journey is part of a series of events that have unfolded since the early years of the Yemeni crisis, all aimed at minimizing losses and casualties and ultimately bringing an end to the war in Yemen.
Review of previous agreements:
1. In April 2014, the United Nations passed Resolution 2216, calling on Yemeni parties involved in the conflict to cease violence. Ansarullah was also urged to withdraw from areas it had captured, but this resolution had limited impact.
2. In October 2018, Ansarullah unilaterally released hundreds of prisoners and presented a peace initiative, offering to withdraw from Saudi borders in exchange for Saudi Arabia’s cessation of support for the Yemeni army and investment in Yemen’s infrastructure. However, this initiative did not lead to a ceasefire.
3. In April 1400, Saudi Arabia proposed a ceasefire under UN supervision, the reopening of Sana’a airport, partial lifting of the Hodeidah port blockade, and resumption of fuel and aid supplies to northern Yemen.
4. In April 1401, a two-month ceasefire was established in Yemen with the mediation of Oman, later extended until October. Oman played a key role in these agreements.
5. This year, a prisoner exchange agreement was completed, and Ansarullah and Riyadh extended the ceasefire during negotiations.
6. The Ansarullah delegation’s trip to Riyadh represents the latest effort toward a political solution to the Yemeni crisis.
The prospect of peace in Yemen:
Several factors, including Saudi Arabia’s desire to secure oil exports and reduce regional conflicts, the need to address the humanitarian crisis, and international pressure on Saudi Arabia, particularly from Western governments, all make the end of the Yemen crisis more likely.
Saudi Crown Prince’s interest in redirecting funds from supporting the Yemeni government towards Saudi infrastructure development to attract foreign investment adds to the impetus for peace.
The humanitarian crisis in Yemen and international criticism have led Saudi Arabia to seek a resolution, and improving relations with Iran would also facilitate peace in Yemen.
Effective mediation, particularly by Oman due to its proximity to Yemen and its efforts to prevent instability and terrorism, has played a crucial role in peace efforts.
In conclusion, the pieces for peace in Yemen appear to be falling into place, and given the willingness of both parties to consider a ceasefire, a lasting peace agreement does not seem far-fetched.