PNN – A professor at the University of Melbourne, Australia, who closely monitors the US presidential elections, writes in an article that Republican candidate Donald Trump has five points to win and defeat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the November 15 election.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, “Timothy Lynch”, a professor at the University of Melbourne, emphasizes in an article he wrote for the Persuit news website: Although the political system in America was designed by James Madison and Alexander Hamilton based on the “science of politics” (Federalist Essays #9), the vital tool needed to predict the winner of this year’s presidential election is a coin.
He notes that the coins in America this year have decreased in value by 18% compared to 2020, and this issue is a key problem for the Democratic front.
Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is facing widespread economic pessimism among American voters, and that, along with several other factors, is undermining her chances of winning the 270 electoral votes needed to end the ambitions of former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
However, Donald Trump is also facing various challenges.
Reasons why Trump may win the election
First, is the economy. The first advantage that Trump has is the spread of sentiment caused by economic problems. Democrats are the cause of the current mood in America; whether economists blame them for these conditions or not (and many do). Inflation has stubbornly resisted the manipulations of the Federal Reserve (Central Bank of America) and this issue can be asked of Jim Chalmers, a representative of Queensland in the Australian Parliament.
Second is nostalgia. Rightly or wrongly, this is the second key strength of the Republican and Trump camps.
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As we get further from the Trump era, interest in some aspects of it increases. Democrats want voters to remember the riots of January 6, 2021 (the attack on Congress by Trump supporters after losing the election). They probably oversold on this terrible day.
It seems that the period of good economic growth and its reliance on (how to) trade with China has made Trump a wealth creator who has established himself in people’s minds.
On the other hand, there is nostalgia for a world without war in the Trump era. Of course, there is a big exaggeration in this case. However, it should not be forgotten that he was the first American president after Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) who did not attack any country.
Before his time, there were bloody civil wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. After his time, Russia attacked Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas started. In the meantime, there is the “Mad Man” theory of Trump; He controlled the aggressors and kept America and its allies in peace.
Third, do the calculations. The Electoral College math is in Trump’s favor.
Two points should be noted here: Trump will hardly win 47% of the popular vote, but he will have most of the Electoral College votes. Harris can’t win without the popular vote, but Trump can. He did this once in 2016.
In the 2016 election, Trump won 46.1 percent of the popular vote, but 306 Electoral College votes. While 48.2 percent of people voted for Hillary Clinton, she only won 227 Electoral College votes. Trump won the Electoral College votes in 30 states and Hillary Clinton only won the Electoral College votes in 20 states.
Pennsylvania will definitely be a key state. It has replaced Ohio as a “bellwether state” (a state where the Democratic and Republican votes are very close).
With only a few weeks left until the end of the election campaign in the United States, polls show that the races are very close and close. If Trump can get 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, he will probably become president. This state is a microcosm, rural and urban, of the United States. A high-tech, old rust belt, the state could return leaders from both parties to state power.
Harris may have miscalculated when she didn’t choose popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her first running mate.
Fourth; Trump has already defeated a female opponent.
Hillary Clinton was a much more skilled politician than Kamala Harris, but Trump beat her. But Harris has carefully avoided Clinton’s big mistake: alienating Trump supporters by lumping them into a “basket of deplorables.”
Fifth, a racial alignment is underway.
Identity politics meant directing people of color to the Democratic Party. Joe Biden claimed: “If you have trouble knowing whether you’re a supporter of me or a supporter of Trump, then you’re not black.”
But the racial determinism that progressives have long relied on is beginning to break down — ironically, the first woman of color has been nominated for the White House.
Between 2016 and 2020, the number of African-Americans who were willing to vote for Trump doubled—the voting base is still low, but it has doubled. According to the results of a recent study, nearly a third of black Americans now identify as ideologically conservative.
One in five black men will vote for Trump in the upcoming election. In 2012, Mitt Romney won only 27% of the Hispanic vote; Trump will probably get 40% of their votes.