PNN – The 2024 election, which is the 60th US presidential election, will be held on Tuesday, November 5. While there are about two weeks left for this election and foreign policy, especially the war in the Middle East, casts a shadow on this country’s elections, the question is whether the American people will put the first woman in the position of president or send Trump to the White House for the second time?
The US presidential election was supposed to be a repeat competition between current president Joe Biden and former US president Donald Trump, but when Biden withdrew from the competition in July this year and his vice president Kamala Harris entered the competition; this scene changed.
What issues are important to the American people?
In a survey conducted by the Carnegie Foundation at the end of August 2024, some of the important views and priorities of the American people in both domestic and foreign sectors in the 2024 presidential election were raised and reported in the media. According to this survey, the most important challenges of this country’s foreign policy that the next president must address include the following:
1- The situation of illegal immigration on the US-Mexico border (with 50% of the poll audience’s vote)
2- Climate changes (40 percent)
3- The war between Israel and Hamas (35 percent)
4- War and relations between Russia and Ukraine (28 percent)
5- Relations with China (with 28 percent)
In general, illegal immigration of foreign nationals, climate change and war in the Middle East are the three main issues of the American people in the field of foreign policy, of course, the amount has been different among different racial groups, including whites, blacks, or immigrant Americans.
According to this survey, the most important challenges of the American domestic policy are “economic, unemployment and inflation” issues, which have been the most important domestic issues demanded by the American people from their president in all presidential election periods.
Dr. “Michael Cox” American field expert at the “Chatham House” think tank wrote in a report in evaluating the economic conditions of the United States during the Biden era: American economic statistics show that the unemployment rate is now at its lowest level; The American economy has grown nearly three percent in each season; Wages are rising and the stock market is crossing historic highs. Meanwhile, interest rates, which have reached their highest levels in more than two years, are expected to be cut by necessity.
Who is leading in the polls? Harris or Trump?
Kamla Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, immediately after announcing her entry into the election field, was able to slightly surpass Trump in the average national polls of the United States, so that in a month after that, she was able to move four percent of the opinion polls in her favor. But this process reached a balance between him and Trump in September, and after that Trump has narrowly improved his ranking in these polls.
According to news sources, out of a population of more than 345 million people in 50 states, 240 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 presidential election of this country. Of course, the observers of the election process in the United States say that although the polls in this country can show the popularity of a candidate, they cannot fully predict the true fate of the election, because the “Electoral College” election system in the United States determines the final winner in this election.
Early voting begins
The laws of the presidential elections in the United States have allowed the election organizers to collect votes before November 5th. International media reported that early voting started on Tuesday (October 15) in a number of American states, and by Friday, October 27, more than five million votes had been collected. This is especially important in the seven critical states.
Seven fateful states
Seven important states in America are very influential in the fate of the elections, but due to various reasons, it is not possible to have an accurate estimate of the performance and electoral direction of these states until the Election Day.
According to American media reports, these states, from east to west, include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Because in some of these states, which are considered the bases of Democrats, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, Donald Trump was able to change the votes of these states from blue to red in 2016.
In this round of elections, the American media has announced the state of Michigan as one of the three “blue wall” states that, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, can significantly help the Democrats in the November 5th election.
Economic Times wrote in a report in this regard: Although 240 million people are expected to participate in the 60th US presidential election; it seems that not all of them but seven key states will be decisive in the election results of this period.
The shadow of the Middle East war on the US elections
In few American elections, the shadow of foreign policy has weighed so heavily on these elections. Indeed, foreign policy rarely affects US elections, but the war in the Middle East will have a huge impact on many Arab-American voters in Michigan. Because many American voters of Arab descent have been disappointed and disillusioned with Biden’s unconditional support for Israel following the events of October 7 last year and have taken a stand against it. In addition, American public opinion among large sections of young people and women is sympathetic to the people of Palestine and Gaza.
Friday, October 18, Harris said in a speech in the state of Michigan, the time has come to “end the suffering” in the Middle East; On the same day, Trump visited one of the only Muslim cities in the country, because many Arab and Muslim American voters live in different cities of the state.
In her speech, Harris said in a short reference to Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah: This year has been a very difficult year considering the scale of death and destruction in Gaza and considering the casualties and displacement of civilians in Lebanon. The death of Yahya Senwar, the leader of Hamas, can and should be a turning point, and everyone should use this opportunity to end the war in Gaza. Bring the hostages back home and end this suffering once and for all.
According to Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East division of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a European non-profit think tank, “Biden has the tools to put pressure on Netanyahu, but so far he has been reluctant to use them.”
Of course, Trump also has the same positions as Harris and even more in support of Israel. He, who considers himself the most supportive American president for Israel, even in his first term of office, banned the travel of foreign nationals from a number of Muslim countries to the United States, and now he has once again emphasized that if he is re-elected, he will expand this ban to include Gaza refugees too.
Conclusion
Biden’s vice president Harris and former US president Trump have a tight competition in a heavy election campaign. In some polls, such as the one reported by the New York Times, Harris is ahead of Trump by 4%, but in average national polls, the two sides have almost no advantage over each other, or are separated by up to two percentage points; Therefore, any kind of prediction about the results of the US presidential election will be very difficult in the current situation, and the battleground states will ultimately decide the final fate.
According to a new poll commissioned by The Post and reported by The New York Times, Harris leads Trump by 4 percentage points nationwide, but most likely voters prefer the Republican candidate to address key issues such as inflation, immigration and jobs. In this poll, Harris was in the lead with 51% compared to Trump’s 47%, but it seems that with each remaining day until the election, this statistic can be moved and the lead can change.