PNN – According to the reports of international institutions and media, the war in Gaza has not only damaged the economy of this region and the West Bank, but it has also affected the economy of the Zionists. The most important economic sectors of the Zionist regime are high-tech industries and tourism, to the extent that high-tech industries have a share of 18% of the gross output.
According to international media reports, with the continuing conflicts in Gaza, economic problems are another crisis that has engulfed the Zionist regime. The war in which the Zionists bombarded Gaza with all kinds of rockets and bombs, massacred civilians and destroyed the economy and infrastructure of Gaza, has also affected the leaders of this regime, and institutions and media predict a dark economic future for this regime.
“David Rosenberg”, the economic editor of Haaretz, in a note in “Foreign Policy” pointed out the various crises of Al-Aqsa storm on this regime and wrote: The call-up of more than 360,000 reservists, many of whom may serve for long periods of time, will disrupt industries whose workforces are mostly young and male.
He pointed out that previously, as a result of the judicial reforms sought by the Netanyahu government, many newly founded companies moved out of Israel, and this shows that they are concerned about their future in Israel even before had a lot of doubts about the Hamas attack.
He considers Israel’s withdrawal from the current crisis to be dependent on the end of the conflict and says: the continuation of the conflict will cause many Israeli labor forces, who have been called to war as a reserve force, to be involved in this war for a long time. On the other hand, the increase in unrest in the West Bank will disrupt economic activities and destroy business and consumer confidence.
According to him, Netanyahu’s government, which is now facing a large budget deficit, as a result of this confrontation in Gaza, will also face heavy military expenses, which in the absence of extensive (foreign) financial aid will require higher taxes or more borrowing at high interest rates.
A blow to the tourism industry
One of the most vital sources of income for the Israeli regime is the tourism sector; Al-Aqsa storm has hit this sector hard and caused a lot of losses to the tourism industry. According to the announced statistics, Israel’s tourism income was more than 5.5 billion dollars last year, which will experience a sharp downward trend this year due to the conflicts and of course the political problems in this country. According to the announced statistics, most of the tourists are from America, France, Germany and England.
Decrease in investment and value of money
The increase in expenses, especially the allocation of public expenses for the military sector, has put pressure on the government budget. At the same time, due to the uncertainty and instability caused by the war, domestic and foreign investment has decreased and as a result, economic growth and development has also started a downward trend.
Another consequence of the war in Gaza on the Israeli economy is the decrease in productivity and income. In fact, with the mobilization of the army and the increase in security concerns, the labor supply has been disrupted and this has led to a decrease in productivity and income for the affected people. Also, key industries such as chemical industries and areas that are rich in minerals have faced challenges. At the same time, the concern about the stability of the political environment caused the stock index to start a downward trend and the value of the Israeli shekel has decreased by nearly five percent since the beginning of October.
The impact of emotional crisis on the economic cycle
War with the emotional crisis in the Israeli society to the damaged economy; According to “Leo Lederman”, the chief economic advisor of Israel’s “Havalim” Bank, for this reason, people have reduced their consumption to the minimum possible.
Consumption costs make up half of economic activities, and damage to it causes a lot of damage to the economy. The Bank of Israel has reduced its economic growth forecast for the end of this year from 3 to 2.3 percent and for the next year from 3 to 2.8 percent. This prediction is based on the assumption that the war is limited to the geography of Gaza.
The experience of the 34-day war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah in 2006 shows a half-percent decrease in exports and production.
Negative credit outlook
According to the report of the Zionist newspaper “The Times of Israel”, the credit rating agency “Standard and Poor’s” announced that it has reduced the credit outlook of the Zionist regime from “stable” to “negative”. This institution announced the reason for the reduction of the credit rating of the Zionist regime due to the effects of the Al-Aqsa storm operation on the economy of this regime and predicted that the war will not continue for more than three to six months.
Moody’s and Fitch’s credit rating agencies also downgraded the credit rating of the Zionist regime last week. “Standard and Poor’s” accreditation institute predicted that the Zionist regime will face a severe lack of funds due to the increase in the military budget.
Impact on the regional economy
Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned on the sidelines of the “Future Investment Initiative _FII” meeting in Riyadh on November 3, that the war has affected the economy of the region and this can be seen in neighboring countries such as Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan.
“Events in the Middle East have coincided with slow economic growth, high interest rates, and rising debt repayment costs due to Corona and war (Russia and Ukraine).”
The words of the head of the International Monetary Fund came a day after Wall Street giants expressed concern about the heavy impact of the war on the world economy and the involvement of other countries. Addressing the countries of the region, Georgieva said: You are economies dependent on tourism, and insecurity is the killer of tourist arrivals. If you want to trade in goods, the cost of insurance will increase and the risk of refugees is more for countries that are accepting refugees.
Bloomberg’s prediction of conflicts in the region and its impact on the world economy
According to Bloomberg, the increase in tension and conflicts in occupied Palestine, especially the recent confrontation between the Zionists and the resistance forces in Gaza, not only affects the economy of this regime, Gaza and the West Bank, but can also have negative consequences for the world economy. $150 per barrel oil and a drop of one trillion dollars in the world’s gross product are among them.
According to Bloomberg’s analysis, there are three predictions for the continuation of the war, all of which have three major consequences: “More expensive oil”, “Higher inflation” and “Slower growth”. Which prediction comes true will determine whether the scope of the economic consequences of the war in those three areas will remain regional or become global.
Bloomberg has made three predictions in his analysis of the war in Gaza:
- Geographical limitation of conflicts in the occupied territories
The impact on oil prices and the global economy is very small. The tightening of US sanctions against Iran could add $3 to $4 to oil prices, but the global impact is small, especially if Saudi Arabia and the UAE use their capacity to fill Iran’s void in the oil market.
- Proxy war between Iran and Israel and geographical expansion of conflicts to Lebanon and Syria
If the conflicts are extended to Lebanon and Syria, which is a place supported by Iran, a proxy war between Iran and Israel will occur, which will have a higher economic cost than the first option. With the possibility of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, the increase in oil prices will probably be higher. Based on the experience of the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, the price of crude oil increased by $5 per barrel, and based on this, oil is predicted to reach $94 per barrel with a 10% price increase.
- War between Iran and Israel
The most dangerous possible prediction is the war between Iran and Israel. This direct conflict will lead to global recession, and rising oil prices and rising inflation will significantly affect economic growth in the world. A one percent decrease in global economic growth and a growth rate of 1.7 percent in 2024, which is the lowest rate since 1982, is one of the negative consequences of this analysis.
Also, if this prediction is realized, inflation will reach 6.7%. If Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, even the additional capacity of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will not help, since one-fifth of Sardat oil passes through this strait on a daily basis.