The Ukrainian crisis is on the verge of geopolitical change.
The Ukrainian crisis, now in its third year, has entered a phase that many consider “the prelude to a major geopolitical earthquake.”
In recent days, significant developments have occurred on the ground, diplomatically, and militarily, indicating that the war has transformed from a bilateral Russia-Ukraine conflict into a structural crisis in the global order and balance of power.
From Trump’s ultimatum to Putin to NATO’s authorization to attack Ukraine deep inside Russian territory, from warnings about the possibility of a new front opening in Lithuania to severe attacks on critical infrastructure and nuclear power plants, all indicate that not only is the possibility of a ceasefire more remote, but the risks of a larger clash between world powers have increased.
The recent and surprise Ukrainian drone attacks on sensitive Russian military bases, including the air base where the country’s strategic bombers are deployed, are the latest in a series of developments and shifts in the course of the war in Ukraine.
Earlier, in one of the most unprecedented moves, Donald Trump warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin was “playing with fire” as Moscow continued to invade Ukraine. This move, which is both a threat to Russia and a pressure on Zelensky to back down, reflects the apparent division in US policy towards the Ukraine crisis.
These moves are being watched with particular concern by Kiev, as they suggest a possible shift in US strategy from endless war to an imposed agreement and compromise with Russia under Trump. Zelensky’s cold response to Trump’s remarks and his warning about a “backroom deal on Ukraine” is itself indicative of Kiev’s deepening legitimacy crisis and confusion.
In an unprecedented move, some NATO countries, including the US and Germany, have authorized the use of Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. This decision, although accompanied by media caution, in practice amounts to crossing one of Russia’s most important red lines.
Potential escalation of threat levels
Moscow’s response was swift and decisive; Putin warned that if attacks on Russian soil continued, “Russia will consider attacking Western decision-making centers.” Such a level of direct threat has pushed the Ukrainian war into a phase of intense proxy conflict that is potentially internationally destabilizing.
In addition to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has issued serious warnings about Lithuania’s provocative behavior. Tensions over the Suwalki Pass and the possibility of NATO weapons being deployed near the Kaliningrad border have raised the possibility of a second front opening in the Baltic.
At the same time, some European sources are talking about the possibility of Russia activating covert networks in the Balkans to pressure the West. If this second front were to be activated, the Ukrainian crisis could turn into a regional war in Eastern Europe with profound geopolitical consequences.
In recent days, Russia has launched a new wave of attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure, including power stations, refineries, fuel depots, and railways.
At the same time, there have been reports of increased attacks near nuclear power plants such as Zaporozhye, raising concerns about a regional nuclear disaster.
On the other hand, Western media have also spoken of increased Russian nuclear activity in border areas and even preparations for a “tactical weapons maneuver.” These developments have brought the concept of “nuclear deterrence” from a theoretical threat to a possible scenario in geopolitical calculations.
Geopolitical shift
The sum of these developments shows that we are no longer facing a mere military crisis in Ukraine, but rather the beginning of a “geopolitical shift” in the global system.
This transformation has several salient features: the gradual decline of the Western consensus and the emergence of deep divisions within NATO and Washington, the deepening of Eastern alliances and the strengthening of the Moscow-Beijing axis, the entry of emerging actors from the global south into power equations, the redefinition of the concepts of security, sovereignty, and the use of force in the international order.
The Ukrainian crisis is now at a stage where any miscalculation could endanger the entire security structure of Europe and even the world. The decisions of the coming days in Moscow, Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv will determine not only the fate of this war, but also the course of the formation of the future order.