PNN – Geopolitically, the Ukrainian war has led to the strengthening of military alliances such as NATO and increased defense cooperation among Western countries. It has also exposed Europe’s unprecedented dependence on Russian energy and shifted the Union’s energy path toward alternative sources.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, the Ukrainian war has become one of the most defining geopolitical crises of the 21st century since its beginning in 2022.
Although it appears to be a regional conflict, in practice it reflects a fundamental gap in the current international order; an order that was formed after the Cold War and with the hegemony of Western liberal democracy based on institutionalism and international cooperation.
The continuation of this war and its multi-layered consequences have not only redrawn military, economic, and political borders at the European level, but have also challenged the foundations of the legitimacy and effectiveness of the current international order.
Ukraine in the context of changes in the international order
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a country on the border between two worlds: on the one hand, the desire to integrate into Western structures (NATO and the European Union), and on the other, Russian pressure to maintain geopolitical influence.
The occurrence of color revolutions, including the Orange Revolution (2004) and the Maidan Movement (2014), demonstrated the desire of Ukrainian society to distance itself from Russian influence, which Moscow viewed as an existential threat to its Eurasian security order.
The occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022 were a response to this geopolitical shift. With the outbreak of war, Ukraine is no longer just a country, but a stage for strategic confrontation between rival global orders: the West, on the one hand, aims to defend the liberal international order, and Russia, on the other, aims to counter NATO expansionism and restore its authority in Eurasia.
The ongoing war in Ukraine represents a serious challenge to the rules-based international order. The inability of institutions such as the UN Security Council to prevent and respond effectively to aggression has undermined their credibility.
Also, the recent policies of US President Donald Trump, which seeks to reduce support for Ukraine and increase its desire for rapprochement with Russia, have raised serious concerns among European allies. These developments are signs of a move towards a multipolar order centered on different powers.
The war in Ukraine has called into question the effectiveness of international institutions in dealing with major crises. The veto power of the permanent members of the Security Council has created a serious obstacle to making decisive decisions.
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In response to this situation, efforts have been made to reform the structure of these institutions and increase the participation of different countries in decision-making processes.
International meetings, such as the June 2024 Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland, which was attended by representatives of 92 countries and 8 international organizations, are an example of these efforts. The summit emphasized principles such as nuclear security, freedom of navigation, and food security.
The war has also led to changes in the global balance of power. On the one hand, Europe’s dependence on American security and military support has become more prominent, while on the other, countries such as China and India, by adopting independent positions, are trying to play a more prominent role in the global order.
These developments are signs of a transition to a multipolar order centered on various regional and global powers.
The conflict has had widespread economic impacts globally, including disruptions to supply chains, rising energy and food prices, and global inflation.
According to World Bank forecasts, the prices of basic commodities will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2025 and 2026, which could help reduce inflationary pressures.
The Role of Great Powers in the Ukrainian War: Redefining the Global Balance
As the architect of the liberal global order, the United States has played a central role in equipping Ukraine militarily and economically. However, the emergence of isolationist tendencies in domestic politics (especially on the Republican side and in the Trump team) has raised doubts about Washington’s continued support.
The growing pressure to end the war and focus on domestic interests could lead to a redefinition of America’s leadership role in the global order.
The European Union, faced with direct security threats from Russia, has taken a new path of defense alliance. Initiatives such as “Readiness 2030” and increased military budgets of member states indicate a gradual transition of Europe from dependence on the United States in the security sphere.
The Ukraine war also exposed Europe’s dependence on Russian energy in an unprecedented way and shifted the Union’s energy path toward alternative sources.
Long-term consequences of continuing the war
The continuation of the war has changed the security boundaries of Europe. The membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO, the return of militarism to Eastern Europe, and the rearmament of Germany and Poland are all signs of the beginning of a new security order on the Green Continent.
On the other hand, Russia is also seeking to redefine its sphere of influence by strengthening its bases in the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and even in Africa. Ukraine’s economy has been severely damaged, and according to the World Bank, the country’s reconstruction will require more than $400 billion.
On the other hand, the war has redefined energy chains, boosted military production, and increased demand for weapons. European countries’ dependence on the US military industry and China’s competition in arms exports are increasing.
The ongoing war has displaced millions of Ukrainians, creating deep psychological, migration, and cultural crises inside and outside Ukraine. On the other hand, anti-Russian sentiment in the West and anti-Western sentiment in Russia have also increased, deepening the cultural rupture in the global order.
Ukraine as a laboratory for the future order
The Ukrainian war is not just a battlefield, but a test case for future models of global order. It has called into question the legitimacy of international institutions such as the United Nations, which have been unable to contain the war.
New military technologies (drones, cyberwarfare, and artificial intelligence) have been widely tested and deployed. Opposing ideological narratives around the world have used this war to justify their foreign policy.
Ukraine, as a “laboratory for a new order,” suggests that the future of global order, rather than relying on multilateral institutions, may be moving toward bloc competition, regionalism, and the balance of power.
In general, based on the available data, it can be concluded that the continuation of the war in Ukraine is a symbol of a deep crisis in the international order.
This crisis is shaping not only the future of Ukraine but also the future of global power formation. The post-Cold War order is facing structural challenges, and in the absence of a global consensus on the principles governing international interactions, the world is on the verge of a transition to a multipolar, competitive, and confrontational order.
Meanwhile, the fate of Ukraine could shape not only the resolution or deepening of the crisis of order, but also the direction of the international system in the coming decades.