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Monday, February 3, 2025

Trump’s foreign policy and new challenges for India and Taiwan

PNN – In the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency, new American policies, including pressure on China, review of trade relations with Taiwan, and increased trade tensions with India, have set a new path in global equations.

According to the report of Pakistan News Network from analytical website of the South China Global Project, in the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States, his administration has started implementing some of its key election promises. Among these actions are intensifying the treatment of illegal immigrants, threatening to impose trade tariffs against allies and the decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization. With Trump taking office, changes in the relations of major global powers seem likely.

While the Trump administration has taken a tougher stance toward China, it also seems to view US-Taiwan relations as unbalanced. Washington’s willingness to review its trade deficit and Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the semiconductor industry could be a challenge for Taiwan; The Island that hosts the world’s largest chip manufacturer. While Taiwan’s future remains uncertain, the implications of these changes for the entire Asia-Pacific region will also be significant.

This report adds: On the other hand, the relations between India and China have improved after the signing of the border patrol agreement in late 2024, but this trend is being tested due to the competition of these two countries in the field of regional influence and new changes in the US foreign policy.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had close relations with Trump during the first term of his presidency (2016-2020), but Trump’s recent statements about the countries that are members of the group of emerging economies known as BRICS (BRICS) could create new challenges.

According to the analysis website of South China Global Project, the three main areas of disagreement between the US and India include trade tariffs, immigration and defense issues. India has a trade surplus in its relations with the US as its largest export market, and Trump’s approach to mutual trade could prove problematic for New Delhi.

On the immigration front, while the Indian government is working with US authorities to repatriate illegal Indian immigrants, Trump’s draconian policies, including possible restrictions on H-1B work visas, could prove problematic. In 2023, about 75 percent of all H-1B visas were issued to Indian citizens, and nearly 200,000 Indian students were studying at American universities, many of them hoping to enter the labor market through this visa.

Trump’s defense policies, although unpredictable, may pose the greatest challenge to the region. The United States wants India to increase the purchase of American weapons in order to establish a trade balance and expand security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. One of the key parts of this cooperation for India will be to enhance its military capabilities and increase its commitments within the framework of the Quad group.

To face the upcoming challenges, India will most likely use its strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region to score points from the Trump administration. Although India has been wary of actively participating in the Quartet in the past in order to maintain its strategic autonomy, it is also aware of the implications of this cooperation on its sensitive relations with China.

These doubts may be exacerbated by the recent improvement in India-China relations, which has accelerated since the border clashes of 2020. However, this improved relationship seems to have boosted India’s confidence in handling Trump’s new policies. Finally, these three countries are on the path of complex and interconnected relations, which is not a completely new scenario.

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