What effect does the limited ceasefire have on the balance of power?
During the Gaza crisis, the United States took advantage of Israel’s comprehensive and comprehensive support action mechanisms. America’s regional action model was out of balance. America tried to put all-round support for Israel on the agenda. The United States mobilized the diplomatic and media space in support of Israel. During this time, American leaders showed no regard for international public opinion, and as a result, the ground for escalating violence against the Palestinians, Hamas, and the people of Gaza was created.
America was aware that the escalation of the crisis would create increasing challenges for Israel’s security. That is why he used the diplomacy of peaceful crisis control. Escalation of the crisis meant conditions that could provide the necessary ground for violent conflicts between countries and different actors. In this situation, Hezbollah and Hamas emerged as the axis of counteraction against Israel’s violence.
The resistance of Hamas in Gaza expressed the fact that the escalation of the crisis could create more challenges for Israel. Resistance should be sought in mutual military and operational challenges. Although Israel was able to occupy Gaza, its continuation came at significant tactical costs for Israel. The resistance of the Palestinian people and the presence of 300,000 Gazans made the work of the Israelis more and more difficult. Urban warfare and the human costs of Israeli violence against Palestine created an international humanitarian atmosphere in support of the Palestinian people. The Israelis thought that the crisis could be managed and controlled; While the Palestinian community and resistance groups were able to use the mechanisms of mutual action to neutralize Israel’s intense and violent actions. Such a process led to an increase in military and credit costs for Israel. In this situation, the international community was widely mobilized with signs of widespread protest against the violence and genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.
The exceptional situation and the future of Gaza
Carl Schmitt used the concept of the state of exception in connection with unstable societies, unpredictable developments, and rapid transformations. Gaza is currently in an unstable ceasefire situation. Peace in Gaza has become an exceptional matter, the roar of military units has continued for the past 45 days, and with every shot, human destiny has reached its end. In this era, signs of conservatism, pain, and hatred have been reproduced.
During this historical period, Israel and the United States ignited the fire of war and human destruction. Hamas and the resistance forces continued to strive for deterrence based on tactical rationality and strength. Inspired by the experiences of the 33-day war, from peacebuilding based on power and mutual security, Hezbollah reproduced and reflected its military and operational doctrine in a chaotic atmosphere.
In such a situation, the question arises as to what effect the declaration of a limited ceasefire will have on the balance of power and how it will shape the future of the war in the turbulent Gaza region. The fact is that every war and conflict reflects a change in the balance of power, just as it reflects a new form of balance of power.
1- Why the ceasefire was formed
Just as the beginning and the main cause of every war is a reflection of the change in the balance of power, the ceasefire will be a reflection and a symbol of the change in the equation and balance of power. The truce is formed in the literature and logic of strategic action for the same reason that wars appear and reflect a specific form of conflict.
Israel felt that in its violent military operations, it could upset the balance of power, put Hamas in a state of destruction, and create a certain form of new balance. The result of this should be seen in signs of widespread violence and intense Israeli genocide. In this process, European idealism also reached the end of the line. It revealed its hidden realities and showed that power politics is the main axis of the behavior of international actors and great powers.
2- The future of the ceasefire in Gaza
The initial agreement states that the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza will continue for 4 days and nights. Such a period will be necessary and unavoidable for the exchange of vulnerable prisoners. Israel and America thought that the capture of Gaza would provide them with a relative advantage to free the prisoners; While Israel’s extreme measures only led to the escalation and increase of human casualties.
3- The impact of the Gaza War on the balance of power
Every war should be seen as a reflection of a change in the balance of power. The Palestinians, who had the identity of the resistance, gradually improved their position and gained the self-confidence necessary for operational action. The manner and process of any war, peace, power, and security will be a function of the balance of power. The declared ceasefire also reflects signs of a new balance.
Some theorists, including Alexander George, point out that the process of crisis management and cease-fire without change in the equation of power, operational capacity of countries, and their level of fatigue to continue the war are linked.
The operational action of Israel and the level of resistance of Hamas in this war and conflict continued for more than 45 days. Israel received all the operational power and diplomatic support of the United States. Israel’s operational action would not be possible without the diplomatic, economic, and media support of America and Europe. Since the middle of November, the United States found themselves in a situation where they considered the cease-fire inevitable and considered the continuation of the war risky.
The truce on November 23 can have a phased nature, But every war that reaches a certain level of balance is placed in a truce space. The fact is that Israel will violate the ceasefire, But such an action is placed in the new crisis management environment.
Conclusion
War and conflict will be the inevitable reality of political developments in the Middle East. Every war can be seen as a reflection of a change in the balance of power. The balance in the Middle East, whose main feature is the state of exception, will be a recurring and inevitable reality.
Israel and Hamas have used intense action mechanisms and put the regional environment of the Middle East in a state of crisis and inevitable conflict. This shows that, first of all, the Middle East is considered as an exceptional region among geographical areas. Secondly, the war between Hamas and Israel forces them to act in a chaotic environment. In such a situation, the ceasefire has a phased nature. Thirdly, in the post-war era, a new form of balance will be created. The new balance will be accompanied by signs of tactical rationality. Israel, the countries of the Arab world and the resistance front are placed in the space of tactical pragmatism. New divisions are emerging in the Middle East, each division is a sign of a new form of pragmatic balance and can create a new space of balance with resistance. Naturally, this process can reproduce the thought of the two governments and turn the resistance identity into a legitimizing identity.