Will relations between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime become normal?
The publication of conflicting news regarding the Saudi negotiations with the United States and the Zionist regime shows the high-pressure process of bargaining between the parties to fulfill the Saudi conditions.
As the time of the US presidential election campaign approaches, the foreign policy and national security team of the Biden government centered on Blinken-Sullivan put the Riyadh-Tel Aviv normalization project on the agenda. In this long marathon, sometimes some personalities and media figures close to the White House announce the possibility of normalizing relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime until January 2024, and another group, referring to the conditions of the young Saudi crown prince, says that Washington-Tel Aviv is resistant to the finalization of this project. . The latest news indicates that the negotiations have stopped due to the failure of Riyadh’s demands from the United States and Netanyahu’s government.
The Jerusalem Post newspaper, quoting “Ilaf”, revealed Riyadh’s decision to suspend peace talks with the Netanyahu government. Saudi Arabia has also discussed this issue with Washington and has considered the extreme nature of the regime’s cabinet to be a major obstacle to the continuation of negotiations. In response to this news, the US State Department issued a statement denying the suspension of talks between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. It seems that the Netanyahu government has no interest in giving strategic concessions to Saudi Arabia and the independent Palestinian state, despite the desire to revive the Abraham Pact. Accordingly, in the continuation of this note, we will try to answer the question of whether Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime are at the stage of normalizing relations or not.
What are the conditions of Saudi Arabia?
“Conflicting interests” is the best word to describe the deadlock in the normalization negotiations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime. A few months before the presidential elections, the democratic government is trying to make a big achievement in the field of foreign policy by implementing the project “Unified Middle East”, while creating a united axis against Iran, China and Russia. From the normalization of relations with Riyadh, Tel Aviv seeks to join the political-economic order of the region and open the way for other Arab-Islamic countries to join the Abraham Pact. Netanyahu is well aware of Riyadh’s position among the conservative Sunni countries and intends to enter regional mechanisms by displaying relations with Saudi Arabia.
But Saudi pursues other goals and interests. According to the Wall Street Journal, Mohammad bin Salman plans to give strategic concessions in exchange for the normalization of relations with Tel Aviv. Obtaining the right to enrich uranium in Saudi Arabia, military-security guarantees like the US agreements with Japan and South Korea, expanding Washington-Riyadh economic relations, and stopping human rights criticism of the young Saudi prime minister in media circles. In addition, in order to maintain their image in the Islamic world, the Saudis are looking at the implementation of King Abdullah’s plan (2002) to form an independent Palestinian state. Of course, some experts believe that Saudi Arabia has bypassed this plan and only wants the implementation of some of its provisions, such as the formation of a Palestinian state or the cessation of Zionist settlement construction in the West Bank. The appointment of Nayef al-Sudairi as the first non-resident Saudi ambassador to Palestine is considered a step in this direction.
Majid al-Khaldi, adviser to the head of the self-governing organization, received the letter of credence of Nayef al-Sudairi, the Saudi ambassador to Palestine
In order to fulfill its demands, Saudi Arabia is not limited to the negotiation table and is looking for alternative ways. In order to fulfill its conditions, Riyadh has adopted the policy of “positive balance” in relations with regional and extra-regional powers. For example, after the United States and European governments refused to send advanced drones to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Defense Industries (SAMI) obtained the privilege of localizing Akinji drones in Saudi Arabia worth $3 billion in a contract with Bayraktar. In the field of nuclear technology, after receiving the green light from Moscow, Riyadh has introduced the “Ros Atom” company as one of the candidates for the construction of a nuclear power plant in this country. The Chinese and the French also made similar proposals to build a nuclear power plant in Saudi Arabia.
According to CNN, satellite images indicate that the Chinese are helping Saudi Arabia to build ballistic missiles inside the country’s territory. In addition, the Beijing agreement and the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia reduced Saudi security concerns in the northern and eastern borders of this country. All of these developments have strengthened Riyadh’s position at the negotiating table with the United States and the Zionist regime. In such a situation, Biden should either give in to the wishes of the young crown prince or be ready to expand Saudi Arabia’s strategic relations with countries such as China, Russia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The realization of the second scenario will weaken Washington’s geostrategic position in West Asia and the superiority of this country’s competitors in the Indo-Pacific region.
Washington-Tel Aviv’s negative response to Riyadh’s terms
The fulfillment of each of the Saudi conditions by the government of Biden and Netanyahu, while changing the security order of the Shamat region, will limit the military power of the Zionists in the West Asian region. For example, if Washington intends to provide security guarantees to Riyadh (like Japan and South Korea), then Tel Aviv can hardly use the military option against its regional rival in the event of a threat. According to the New York Times, in the negotiation process of concluding this security agreement, America’s commitment includes the interests of Arab countries throughout the region in addition to Saudi territory. Of course, Mossad chief David Barane supports this security agreement and considers its main purpose to be against Iran and the axis of resistance against Saudi Arabia.
Conclusion
Variables such as America’s commitment to maintaining military superiority
The strategic position of the Zionist regime in the Middle East, the opposition of the Israeli authorities to the enrichment of uranium inside Saudi Arabia, the nearness of the American presidential election in November, and the normalization of Saudi-Iranian relations have caused the Saudis’ unwillingness to normalize relations with Tel Aviv in the short term. Therefore, it seems that Riyadh’s accession to the Abraham Pact has been suspended for the time being. However, the principle of “naturalization” and “warm peace” project between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime is still ongoing, and it does not seem that there has been a strategic change in the will of the Saudi and Israeli leaders. Some analysts believe that the only factor that can normalize Riyadh-Tel Aviv relations before November 2024 is the Zionists’ submission to the terms of Mohammed bin Salman.