2024 US Marathon: The winner of the duel, Biden or Trump?
The countdown for the US presidential election, which will be held on November 5, 2024 has begun; The elections that will come in five and a half months and will determine the political fate of this country for the next four years.
2 controversial debates
A few days ago, in a space of four hours, the plan to hold a presidential debate between the current President of the United States, Joe Biden, and the former President of the United States, Donald Trump, turned from a rumor into a reality, and was in the headlines of the media of this country and the world. .
Although the details of the debates have not been published, it seems that the candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties will face each other twice on June 27th and September 10. Debates are also organized by “CNN” and “ABC”.
In connection with the first debate, which will be hosted by CNN in June, Biden wrote in a post on X channel that “I received an invitation from CNN for a debate on June 27th and I accepted it. Now it’s your turn, Donald. As you said: anywhere, anytime, anywhere.”
In another post, Biden announced his readiness for the September debate and wrote that I received an invitation from ABC for the debate on September 10 and accepted it.
Although the difference between Biden and Trump in the polls is not high in terms of popularity, this tip of the scale weighs heavily in favor of the former American president. From the observers’ point of view, Biden has not met the expectations of many voters, although he has achieved some success in the economic field and controlling inflation, but he has fueled crises at home and abroad.
The summary of most polls indicates that the satisfaction with Biden’s performance has reached its lowest level during his presidency and the number is below 40% and sometimes below 38%. These polls have measured Biden’s performance in the fields of foreign policy (especially the war in Ukraine and helping the Zionist regime in the current genocide in the Gaza Strip) and economic performance and approach to immigration.
At the beginning of his presidency (January 2021), Biden had about 57% satisfaction. In August of the same year, it decreased to 44%; A number that was never exceeded even later. His popularity dropped to the lowest number of 37% in April, October and November 2023, and now it is the same.
Biden’s personality has been seriously criticized by his critics in terms of his leadership and decision-making power, lack of transparency and frankness of expression, lack of charismatic features and doubts about his age and mental capabilities.
On the other side of the story, Trump has also faced many conflicts and legal challenges, especially since 2023. He has been called to several courts and faced with very heavy tax fines. However, the efforts to disqualify him in the elections did not go anywhere and he was able to achieve an important legal victory to participate in the 2024 elections.
Therefore, legal challenges have not had a significant impact on Trump’s position. Another characteristic of the previous American president is polarizing the space and breaking cultural norms and adopting very strict and extreme positions towards immigrants.
In terms of popularity, it can be said that Trump has followed the opposite path of Biden. Based on the average of all polls, while his approval rating had dropped to around 38% in January 2021, it gradually rose to 40% in August 2021, 42% in June 2022, and 43% in February 2024.
However, the polls do not show the extreme ups and downs of Trump’s popularity in recent months. Apparently, he has better conditions than Biden in terms of physical and mental preparation, and for this reason, less criticism has been directed at him. Of course, Trump’s critics consider his leadership character to be tense, without moral principles and commitment to social and costly systems in domestic and more importantly foreign policy, and condemn his performance during the Corona period.
The latest survey conducted a few days ago by the “538” election monitoring organization (FiveThirtyEight) showed that the results of the polls were very close. Trump and Biden have received slightly above 40% of the vote. Trump currently has an advantage of 0.8 percentage points, which is within the margin of statistical error. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” as an independent candidate also received about 10% of the votes; Although support for independent party candidates is higher in pre-election polls than at the moment of the actual election.