PNN – Newsweek wrote: In the remaining weeks until the American elections, polls show that Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is ahead of Donald Trump, the former President of the United States and the Democratic candidate, by a large margin.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, this American weekly newspaper added: In the last 36 years, the only Republican candidate who was able to win the popular vote was George Bush with a margin of 2%.
Polls now show that Trump is unlikely to change this trend, but considering the gains the former US president has made in recent polls; it is not unlikely that he could still overtake Bush.
None of the polls show Trump leading the popular vote. Polling expert Nate Silver’s model shows that the Republican candidate has a 24 percent chance of winning the popular vote. According to these results, Harris’s chance is 76%.
This poll predicts that the former US president still has a chance to win 48% of the popular vote.
The online platform Polymarket also increased Trump’s chances of winning Electoral College votes from 27% on October 13 to 36%, while Harris’s chances of winning Electoral votes decreased from 71% to 63%.
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These predictions have been released at the same time as positive results in this month’s polls about Trump. The Fox News poll, which was conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 eligible voters and 870 likely voters, shows that Trump is ahead of Harris by two percentage points.
According to these results, among this group of American voters, Trump has won 50% and Harris 48%.
In addition, the new Active Vote survey, which was conducted between October 3 and 8, stated that Trump’s advantage over Harris in the national poll was 1 to 2 percentage points with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Trump’s polls in decisive states have shown positive signs. The 538 poll shows that Trump’s vote share in Arizona has increased from 1.1% at the beginning of this month to 1.6%, and in Georgia from 1.1% to 1.7%.
Polls also show that Harris’ share of the statewide polls has declined in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and that Trump’s share of the vote has dropped from 0.7 to 0.5 percent in North Carolina.
Newsweek also reported that early voting has begun in most states as the campaign season winds down ahead of the Nov. 5 election. Harris and Trump are hoping for voters in key so-called swing states including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
The Technometrica poll, a conservative political commentary website, and the TIPP poll also show a one-percentage-point lead for Trump over Harris in the state of Georgia (49-48%).
The US presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and the winner of this election will begin the four-year presidential term from January 2025.