Analyzing the future of the Zionist regime in the shadow of domestic and foreign crises.
Major European think tanks have provided significant analyses of the future of the Zionist regime between 2015 and 2025, focusing on political, security, economic, and international relations dimensions.
Using futures research methods, including identifying trends, uncertainties, weak signals, and scenario building, this study extracts insights into the future of the political, security, economic, and international relations of the Zionist regime.
Findings highlight the challenges posed by the unresolved Palestinian conflict, the trend toward the far-right, European human rights pressures, and complex relations with Russia. Four possible scenarios (including: continuation of the status quo, reform and cooperation, isolation and conflict, and unexpected transformation) are outlined, and seven key insights are presented, emphasizing the need for flexible diplomacy, engagement with civil society, and the use of technology. This analysis is useful for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to predict and manage the future paths of the Israeli regime.
Futures studies, as a discipline for identifying and analyzing possible futures, trends, uncertainties, and plausible scenarios, offer a powerful tool for understanding future paths. The Israeli regime, as an illegitimate actor in West Asia, faces complex challenges in the political, security, economic, and international relations spheres. Studies by European think tanks (2015–2025) provide valuable insights into these challenges, especially given Europe’s role in global diplomacy and commitment to international law, which can be used to inform strategic decisions. This report aims to analyze these studies in a futures-oriented manner; identify trends, uncertainties, and weak signals, and provide scenarios and insights for the future of the Israeli regime until 2035. The aim is to provide strategic recommendations for managing the challenges ahead and to understand the factors of stability and instability of the Israeli regime in a dynamic region.
Methodology
The study uses qualitative foresight methods, including trend analysis, uncertainty identification, weak signal analysis, and scenario building. Data are extracted from reports of European think tanks (IAI, ECFR, SWP, and Chatham House) covering the period 2015–2025, identified through targeted searches of think tank websites and public sources. Supplementary sources, including news reports (Reuters) and human rights organizations (Human Rights Watch), were used to cover developments up to April 2025. The analysis was conducted in three stages:
A: Identifying key themes (political, security, economic, international relations), B: Extracting trends, uncertainties, and weak signals, and C: Developing scenarios and foresight insights. To ensure comprehensiveness, the interplay of trends and overlooked aspects (such as civil society, technology, and demographics) was also examined.
Findings
1. Key trends
Tendency to the far right in politics: The emergence of far-right governments with settlement policies and resistance to Palestinian autonomy has led to domestic polarization and international criticism.
Security control over Gaza and the West Bank: The Israeli regime has maintained security control without governmental responsibilities, which increases the risk of regional tensions.
European human rights pressures: The European Union and civil society organizations have called for accountability for human rights violations, including war crimes and apartheid.
Strengthening relations with Russia: Strategic relations with Russia have been strengthened and may be expanded under certain circumstances (such as the Trump administration).
Empowering civil society: Public discontent in Zionist society and European civil society pressures (such as boycott campaigns) are emerging as agents of change.
Demographic changes: The growth of the settler and Palestinian population in the occupied territories could exacerbate domestic and regional tensions.
2. Uncertainties
US policies: The approach of future US administrations towards the Middle East will be influential.
Regional reactions: The response of other countries (such as Iran, Turkey, the Gulf states) to Israeli policies could determine cooperation or conflict.
EU position: The extent of EU pressure to sanction or suspend agreements depends on the consensus of member states.
Demographic dynamics: The impact of demographic changes on policies and stability is uncertain.
Global events: Changes in the global order, such as economic crises or great power competition, can affect the position of the Zionist regime.
3. Weak signals
Alignment with the Visegrad: The support of the Visegrad countries (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia) for the regime of Israel could create cracks in the policy of the European Union.
The “Middle East Riviera” plan: The unconventional proposal to rebuild Gaza as a tourist center is a sign of creative or unexpected ideas.
Civil society activities: The boycott campaigns and pressures of NGOs are signs of a shift in global norms towards accountability.