Arab analyst: 3 scenarios for the future of the ceasefire in Gaza.
Wissam Afifeh outlines the following three scenarios for the future of the Gaza Strip, characterized by the transformation of the conflict from a military dimension into a political struggle over the shape of the “post-war day” based on contradictory agendas and the fragility of the ceasefire.
– The first scenario is crisis management and procrastination. According to this scenario, the ceasefire remains fragmentary and fragile – without real political arrangements or comprehensive reconstruction of the Gaza Strip – and Israel continues to impose a new situation on the ground, while the US tries to regulate the pace of humanitarian aid in a way that leaves the difficult humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip without any real political horizon.
This scenario seeks to continue the deterioration of the humanitarian situation and to try to sow division and division in the Palestinian position and increase the risk of an internal explosion of the situation.
Afifeh believes that this is the most likely scenario in the short term and will probably continue for several months.
– The second scenario is the imposition of a temporary division (of tasks). According to this scenario, the US administration will succeed in implementing “safe zones” measures in the Gaza Strip and creating an umbrella of support from Arab governments and the UN for the temporary management of civil and security affairs in the region until the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip takes place, without a comprehensive political solution linked to real disarmament.
Afifa believes that this scenario will consolidate and consolidate Israel’s covert control over Gaza affairs and lead to a decrease in the political influence of Egypt and the Palestinians. He considers the possibility of this scenario to be moderate.
– The third scenario is the Palestinians’ hope and attachment to the role of Qatari, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators who will succeed in pressuring Israel to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip and start an integrated Palestinian political process that links reconstruction to the gradual return of the Palestinian Authority to the region and the activation of serious internal reconciliation.
If realized, this will lead to a minor political breakthrough and will allow for the reorganization of the Palestinian political system and the unification of the national position. However, Afifa believes that the likelihood of this scenario occurring is low to medium.
According to IRNA, on Thursday, the Hamas movement officially announced the achievement of an agreement to end the war in the Gaza Strip and exchange prisoners.
The Israeli army also officially announced the implementation of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on Friday afternoon, October 18, and announced: According to the agreement, Israeli forces will remain stationed in certain areas of the Gaza Strip, and travel from the south to the north of the Gaza Strip will be allowed via Al-Rashid Street and Salahuddin Road.