Decoding the reason for America’s political turn towards Ukraine.
Russian experts believe that Donald Trump’s new plan to send more weapons to Ukraine is a strategic attempt to increase pressure on Russia in peace talks. Russian political analyst Dmitry Suslov, writing in the TASS news agency, believes that this move is a response to Vladimir Putin’s rejection of Trump’s proposed ceasefire plan.
Trump had hoped that Russia would agree to a “freeze” or ceasefire proposal, which would allow Russia to maintain practical control over the occupied territories but not recognize the new borders. This view was ultimately ignored, as Russia’s strategic goals in Ukraine are more important to it than maintaining tactical relations with the United States.
Suslov writes in his note that in such circumstances, Trump intends to intensify his pressure on Moscow by increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and announcing new sanctions. Interestingly, this arms package is to be financed using funds left over from the Biden era, and if Trump seeks new funding, he will consider this action as “privatizing the war,” meaning that he will keep the door open to helping Ukraine regardless of political agreements.
Politically, Trump is oscillating between two major groups in the Republican Party: one that wants to stay out of the Ukrainian war and focus on domestic issues and confronting China, and another that wants to continue to put strategic pressure on Russia to achieve a strategic victory.
According to the Russian analyst, Trump is trying to balance these two spectrums and adopt a middle policy, both “strong threats” and “limited measures.”
Finally, Trump’s announcement that he will send advanced missiles to Ukraine, part of the cost of which will be paid for by the European Union, indicates continued US support for Ukraine, although Trump’s overall policy remains centered around controlled pressure and threats.