We are examining the three factors of the prolongation of the Gaza war using the “Michael Brecher” model.
The fifth month of the Gaza war is coming to an end. According to the latest statistics, the Zionist regime committed genocide in this war killed more than 28,000 people, and injured 68,000 people. In this article, using Michael Brecher’s crisis management model, the important question will be answered, why the current war in Gaza has become the longest war in the 76-year history of the Zionist regime and there is still no sign of ending the war?
In his book titled “Crisis in World Politics”, Canadian thinker Michael Brecher defines crisis as a situation in which the important values and interests of countries are threatened and governments are faced with the principle of surprise when a crisis occurs. Michael Brecher considers six indicators to determine the intensity and extent of the crisis: geostrategic importance, the subject of the crisis, violence between actors, the multiplicity of actors, heterogeneity, and the degree of intervention of great powers. Three indicators of the issue of crisis, inconsistency, and the level of intervention of great powers can be used to explain why the Gaza war is prolonged.
1. The issue of crisis
In the book “Crisis in World Politics”, Michael Brecher states that one of the reasons for the prolongation of crises is the issue that caused the crisis. In the current war in Gaza, the issue of crisis is the most important factor that caused the war to be prolonged. The Al-Aqsa storm operation, which inflicted an “irreparable defeat” on the Zionist regime in the words of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, was a major blow to the regime’s “credibility of deterrence and power”. This regime had high military and intelligence credibility and overall deterrence credibility, but the Al-Aqsa storm destroyed all of these. At the same time, the regime failed to release its prisoners from Hamas during the last 5 months, which has further questioned the credibility of Tel Aviv’s intelligence. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks of a long and difficult war with heavy costs and believes that Hamas should be punished for its attacks, even if it takes months or years. Therefore, Tel Aviv’s opinion is that ending the war without destroying Hamas and freeing the prisoners will not only restore its credibility, but even from the first day of the war, its credibility will be more questioned.
In addition to the lost credibility of the Zionist regime, Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of this regime, also sees his credibility lost in the Israeli political scene. With a total of 16 years, Netanyahu has the longest tenure as prime minister in occupied Palestine, and the Al-Aqsa storm also occurred during his prime ministership. Dr. Shaul Kimchi, a psychologist who worked for Israel’s military intelligence service (Aman) and is also teaching at Tel Aviv University, in his studies on Netanyahu’s behavioral and personality aspects from 1999 to 2017, by reviewing interviews and statements, As well as interviews with people who have worked with him, Netanyahu is a person who thinks he is superior to others; Selfish; paranoid; It introduces a highly talented politician who will do anything to advance his goals and most importantly to ensure his political survival. This person is now witnessing the destruction of his credibility and the endangerment of his political life. Therefore, he does not accept the end of the war without the destruction of Hamas and the release of prisoners, and despite being under internal pressure and even foreign public opinion, he insists on the continuation of the war.
2. Inconsistency between the parties involved
One of the most important reasons for the prolongation of the Gaza war and the Zionist regime committing genocide in this area is the inconsistency of the military power of the involved parties. The military power of the Zionist regime and Hamas is not only not equal, but also not close. The Zionist regime, which is fully supported by the United States and several European countries, is not comparable to the Hamas movement in terms of equipment, and while it is a producer of military equipment, it also receives modern equipment from Western powers, especially the United States of America. In the current war, Hamas has dealt a big blow to the credibility of the Zionist regime, but the lack of balance in the military power of the parties caused the Zionist regime to continue bombarding Gaza comprehensively and not even to show a desire for a new ceasefire. The war in Gaza showed above all that the strengthening of military power is still one of the most important components of a country’s strength and power.
3. The level of intervention of great powers
Another important factor in the prolongation of the Gaza war is the type of role that major powers, especially the United States, play in this war. Michael Brecher states in his book that the end of the crisis depends on what role the great powers play in the crisis. He also points out that if the big powers have the will to end the crisis, there is a possibility of success in ending the crisis.
The fact is that the great powers, especially the United States, England, Germany, and France, have not only moved towards stopping the war in Gaza, but they have claimed that the genocide of the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip is an example of legitimate defense. Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, has traveled 5 times to West Asia, including the occupied territories, in the last 5 months. America and two European powers vetoed all three resolutions related to stopping the Gaza war in the Security Council. The intervention of major powers in the Gaza war was not only in the form of declaration and political support, but America, England, Germany, and France have become a side of the war against Gaza. This behavior pattern of the West is an essential factor for the prolongation of the Gaza war, and it seems that the Zionist regime’s war against Gaza will not end until these powers show a serious will to end the war.
In addition to world powers, major regional powers also play a role in the continuation of the Gaza war. Observing the approach and behavioral pattern of regional powers shows that some Arab countries and Turkey do not want to jeopardize their business relations with Israel. Also, some countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, are not reluctant to weaken Hamas in line with regional competition. This behavior and approach of the Arab countries towards Gaza is that the people of Gaza share both their religion (Sunni) and their Arab identity with these countries.
Result
The fifth month of the Gaza war is coming to an end and there is still no prospect of an end to this war. Using Michael Brecher’s model, it can be said that the damage to the credibility of the Zionist regime and Netanyahu, the disparity of power between Hamas and the Zionist regime, as well as the positioning of the Western powers on the side of the Zionist regime and the inaction of the Arab powers and Turkey are among the most important reasons for the prolongation of the Zionist regime’s war against Gaza.