Gambling in Yemen: Are UAE allies eager to occupy Hodeidah?
More than a month after the US military’s airstrikes on strategic targets in central, northern and western Yemen, rumors have increased about the launch of a large-scale ground attack from southern Yemen towards important provinces such as Sanaa, Hodeidah, Saada and Taiz. According to a report published by the American newspaper “Wall Street Journal”, this attack is likely to be launched by the forces of the “Southern Transitional Council” affiliated with the UAE and will be supported by the CENTCOM Air Force.
The readiness of the southern forces, the deployment of Israeli-made radars in northern “Somaliland” with the aim of repelling possible attacks on the UAE and ultimately the eroding cost of the war in Yemen have increased the possibility of an attack on centers controlled by the Yemeni National Salvation Government. The key point is that the Saudi Arabian Kingdom, having learned from the experience of eight years of war with Yemen, is no longer willing to start a new adventure in the region and repeat bitter incidents such as the destruction of Aramco oil facilities. Accordingly, in the rest of this note, we will try to examine different scenarios and the possibility of a US ground attack on Yemen.
US Military Aggression in Yemen
From March 15, 2025, US military attacks on Yemen entered a new phase. Previously, the Americans, in the form of the “Prosperity Guardians” naval coalition and the formation of an air coalition with Britain, tried to break Ansar Allah’s will to support the resistance in Gaza, but they did not succeed. Now, Trump is trying to change the game in Washington’s favor by criticizing Biden’s “weak approach”. The new round of US attacks, which began with the aim of weakening Ansar Allah and protecting Washington’s strategic interests in the region, has had far-reaching consequences. Washington, using advanced fighter jets, aircraft carriers, and cruise missiles, has targeted Yemen’s military and economic infrastructure, leading to civilian casualties and a severe humanitarian crisis. Analysts believe that these attacks have not only failed to ensure regional security but have also increased tensions and paved the way for increased insecurity in the region. The international community’s response to these attacks has been twofold; While some Western countries have supported the US action, human rights organizations and independent countries have considered it a clear violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and international law.
In the regional dimension, these attacks have affected the US relations with local powers. Iran and Russia have strongly supported Yemen politically and militarily, while the Saudis have adopted a cautious stance. The continuation of these conflicts could disrupt the global energy market, as Yemen plays a key role in controlling the Bab al-Mandab Strait. On the other hand, popular resistance in Yemen has increased, and internal unity against the occupiers has been strengthened. Washington seems to be thinking only of its short-term goals, without considering the long-term consequences. If this trend continues, not only will stability not return to Yemen, but there is also a risk of the war spreading to other countries in the region.
UAE Allies as US Infantry
Recent reports indicate that the Southern Transitional Council forces, with UAE support and US air support, are planning to attack the port of Hodeidah. This strategic port, controlled by the National Salvation Government, is Yemen’s only connection to the Red Sea and is one of the world’s most important trade routes. The attack will have far-reaching military, political, and humanitarian consequences. From a military-security perspective, the capture of Hodeidah could affect the balance of power, but Ansar Allah’s resistance and the possibility of prolonged street fighting will turn this operation into a war of attrition. On the other hand, the role of US air support indicates an escalation of Washington’s direct intervention in Yemen, which could lead to a reaction from other regional players.