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Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global Market Outlook for Key Metals in the Shadow of Beijing’s Policies

PNN – Despite a sharp increase in prices on global markets, China’s export controls on three key metals – antimony, germanium, and gallium – have caused an unprecedented decline in exports of these minerals.

According to the report of Pakistan News Network, Asia News Channel reported on Monday that China’s export controls on these three vital metals in the defense and semiconductor industries have caused a sharp decline in export levels, despite rising global prices.

China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, germanium and gallium, metals that play key but specialized roles in areas such as clean energy, chip manufacturing and the military. Starting in 2023, Beijing gradually added these metals to its export control list, and in December last year banned their exports to the United States.

Asia News Channel added: Under the new regulations, exporters must obtain a special license to export any material on the control list, a non-transparent process that allows China to maintain the dominance it has gained over the years over the extraction and processing of these materials.

New customs data released on Sunday confirms a consistent pattern: exports have declined and some buyers, particularly in Europe, have been cut from the supply chain.

According to the report, in the first quarter of the year, exports of antimony and germanium products fell by 57% and 39%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Gallium exports in March also fell to their lowest level since October 2023. Although the quarterly export volume increased compared to last year, it is still much lower than in 2022.

Qingdao Port in eastern Shandong Province, China
Qingdao Port in eastern Shandong Province, China

Antimony exports are now limited to a limited number of countries. After a five-month hiatus, small quantities of the metal were exported to Belgium and Germany in March, but they remain well below past averages. Previous major buyers, such as the Netherlands, have not imported since September.

The pattern observed for the three metals has raised questions about the extent and speed of export licenses for the seven rare earth elements that China recently added to its control list. Exporters say they expect licenses to take months to issue, especially if the goods are destined for the United States.

There have been no antimony exports to the US since last September, and exports of germanium and gallium to the country have also been suspended since 2023.

China’s declining exports have made it difficult for foreign consumers to source supplies, leading to higher prices, a situation that also supports domestic prices in China.

For example, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the “spot price” of antimony in China reached 230,000 yuan (US$31,500) per tonne as of April 18, representing an increase of almost two-thirds since the beginning of the year.

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