Harris and Trump; What is the approach of the next American government towards Iran?
The countdown to the US presidential election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, has begun; The election of the winner will start the four-year term of the presidency from January 2025 and determine the framework of the country’s foreign policy.
What approach the American presidency will take towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in the next government, two scenarios should be examined despite the fact that the future president of the United States has not been determined; Scenarios regarding the victory of Harris as the candidate of the Democratic Party and the victory of Trump as the candidate of the Republican spectrum in the upcoming elections.
Pressure and diplomacy; Harris’s possible approach in facing Iran.
Assuming that Harris wins the US presidential election, we will have a look at his priorities and possible policies toward the Islamic Republic of Iran;
1. Nuclear diplomacy and efforts to return to JCPOA
One of the main axes of Harris’s policy is the return to the nuclear agreement (JCPOA). He probably tries. Despite America’s non-commitment during the Trump era and Biden’s failure to revive the JCPOA, Harris will likely try to resume negotiations, although his main goal in these negotiations is to impose restrictions on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and regional activities.
The “Middle East Institute” has recently discussed the Harris administration’s possible JCPOA approach with Iran in a report and wrote: In 2015, Kamala Harris supported the nuclear agreement or “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA). It is said that he considered Trump’s approach to withdraw from this agreement in 2018 bold and a decision that endangers national security.
This report added: In 2019, during his primary election campaign, Harris stated that he plans to rejoin the JCPOA as long as Iran has verifiable adherence to it.
2. Continuation of the failed “sanction” strategy
Just as most sanctions against Iran happened during the Democratic era, there is a possibility that the sanctions against Tehran will continue under pretenses during the Harris era. In this way, Harris will try to force Iran to negotiate with the tool of economic pressure; A failed policy that has always shown its inefficiency, but all American governments are addicted to it.
Of course, it is not expected that the severity of the sanctions will be the same as during the Trump era. According to the “Middle East Institute”, during Harris’ presidency, the current government’s approach of not being strict about the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports will probably continue, especially if Harris wants to pursue diplomacy with Iran. slow