Has the countdown to the fall of Netanyahu’s cabinet begun?
The Israeli Channel 12 TV channel announced in an analytical report on this matter that as the end of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) ultimatum approaches, the Israeli Prime Minister finds himself in a race against time, because he knows very well that it is not possible to pass a law that would completely exempt some from military service, or at least it is not possible to pass such a law within the framework of the current coalition (and the war conditions in which Israel finds itself).
The report states that a member of the Knesset (parliament) asks, Why did the Haredi not issue this ultimatum a few weeks ago, and why did the Haredi rabbis do this at this exact moment, not a week earlier or a week later?
According to this Hebrew media outlet, although these rabbis tried to hold a Knesset session after a reasonable period since the start of the summer session, they see that the more time passes, the worse the conditions of the Haredis are, and the more they are arrested. Even one Haredi who had gone to the draft office due to mental health problems to receive an exemption was arrested.
In such circumstances, the rabbis concluded that even if the new elections do not yield good results for them, their conditions will never be worse than their current conditions.
In its report, which was published under the title Countdown to Netanyahu’s Fall, the media outlet emphasizes that passing a law exempting Haredis from military service, especially when 450,000 Israelis have been called up for compulsory military service, would be a provocative move. Netanyahu is trying to buy time in any way possible and keep the situation the same until the end of this term and then step down in the next term or in the elections in the first half of next year.
Last week, he tried to pressure Knesset member Yuli Edelstein to negotiate with the Haredis and lure them with a very tempting budget.
Netanyahu has another goal. Given the near-certainty of his coalition’s collapse and heading towards early elections, he is seeking to have this collapse take place under another title and issue, or to dissolve his coalition himself using the issue of conscription as an excuse. Netanyahu would prefer to head towards early elections for political or security reasons rather than have his cabinet fall due to the failure to provide military personnel for the army.
According to the media outlet, due to the Eid holidays in Israel, a meeting is expected to be held next Tuesday between Haredi leaders, Edelstein, and a cabinet minister, in which Netanyahu will request 10 days to finalize the proposals developed in this regard. This time, it is not expected that the Haredis will agree to this postponement, because the majority of them are suspicious of his goals and do not believe that this measure can be fruitful for them.
In this regard, the Hebrew-language website Walla News also discussed the history of Netanyahu’s promises to the Haredis in this regard in a report and published it under the title The Story of the Haredi’s Decision to Collapse Netanyahu’s Coalition.
According to this Hebrew-language media outlet, it was at the end of 2022 that Netanyahu promised the Haredis to take action in the cabinet to develop a law exempting them from military service, but his Minister of Justice had a different opinion, and in any case, things did not go as they should have, because instead of advancing this law, the minister sought judicial changes, or a judicial coup.
According to this media outlet, even before October 7, in street protests, Israeli soldiers protesting the judicial coup law threatened to rebel against military service. Until October 7, it was here that, despite the war, conflict, and many casualties suffered by the Israeli army, the Haredis were still waiting for the passage of the law exempting them from being in the army and war.
Haredi leaders and Knesset members from this sect told this media outlet, “Citizens are unaware of the level of pressure being placed on us. Tens of thousands of our followers are now worried about being arrested for deserting the military. They are even afraid to walk on the sidewalk because they are worried about being arrested as deserters. Fear and panic have taken over our followers everywhere. In any case, Knesset members have been elected to organize the conditions of the followers and have been asked to take action for this purpose. So we have no choice but to enter the process of dissolving the coalition. The situation has become unbearable for us.”