How did Erdoğan’s heavy defeat in Turkish municipal elections come about?
Turkey’s municipal elections have ended and contrary to the claims of the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan’s government, the people refused to trust the mayors of the ruling party once again. Turkish people recorded the lowest turnout in the last 20 years with 77% participation in yesterday’s elections. It is said that inflation, poverty, and dissatisfaction with the performance of the government and the ruling party were the most important factors of low participation.
The victory of the opposition in this period of the elections was a surprise and now the situation is not in favor of Erdogan and his cabinet. Because even though the government has the majority of seats in the parliament, it has failed once again in Ankara and Istanbul, and in several other important and strategic cities, it has handed over the municipalities to the opposition.
The heavy defeat of the candidates supported by Erdogan’s party in Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Antalya, Mersin, and several other provinces made the People’s Republic Party, as the oldest party in Turkey or one hundred and one years old, once again find itself in a position of claiming to Get rid of the ruling party and come to power.
Erdogan’s party is on the way to decline
The Justice and Development Party or AKParty was formed by a group of westernized students of the Islamic Virtue Party. These are the same modernist students of Najmuddin Arbakan, who, contrary to the political policy of their leader, tended to advance a liberal reading of political Islam. This group led by people like Abdullah Gul, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Blent Aranç, and others, after separating from Yaran Erbakan’s ranks, founded a new party in 2001 and in 2002, by winning the majority of the votes, it single-handedly led the government. formed The mentioned party has been in power for the past 22 years and has held the title of “the first party of the country”. But now, for the first time in the last two decades, the Justice and Development Party has lost the first place and is the second party in Turkey in terms of votes.
People’s Republic Party was able to win 37.74% of the people’s votes in the municipal elections and came first, and the Justice and Development Party came second with 35.49% of the votes. Meanwhile, in the 2019 elections, 43% of the Turkish people’s votes went to Erdogan’s party and 26% to the People’s Republic Party.
Yesterday, the Justice and Development Party was able to obtain the keys to 505 municipalities in Turkey, but in 2019, it had obtained 818 municipalities! The number of municipalities of the People’s Republic Party reached 420 in yesterday’s elections, but in 2019, it only had 232 municipalities. Of course, it is important to mention that the percentage of votes does not necessarily determine the number of municipalities, and a party with a low percentage of votes may take over several municipalities of small cities, but another party is forced to win the municipality of a large and important city. Get a few million votes. But in a general assessment, in terms of the importance of the municipalities of the 81 provinces of Turkey, we are faced with such a table:
1. 30 municipalities out of 81 provinces of Turkey have the important title of metropolis, which have high budgets and credits, and winning it is important for all parties. Out of the 30 municipalities of the Turkish metropolis, 14 municipalities went to the People’s Republic Party, the Justice and Development Party won 12 municipalities, 3 municipalities belonged to the Kurds who oppose Erdogan, and 1 municipality was assigned to the newly founded party of Najmeddin Arbakan.
2. Out of the remaining 51 municipalities of the provincial capital, only 12 cities went to Erdogan’s allies, Erdogan’s partner Baghçeli took 8 provincial capitals, 7 cities went to the Kurds, 21 cities went to the People’s Republic Party, and 3 cities went to other parties.
3. Erdogan’s opponents in the People’s Republic Party were able to win 337 cities out of a total of 973 counties and 48 out of 272 districts.
Turkish analysts believe that the resignation of Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the leadership of the People’s Republic Party and the handing over of this sensitive responsibility to a young politician named Özgur Özel has played an important role in the victory of this old party, because Özel has established wide relationships with different groups of people and young people. Turkey showed special attention to him and Akram Imamoglu.
Erdogan faces two big problems
Now the Justice and Development Party led by Erdoğan is faced with two big problems:
1. On the other hand, he is facing a major economic crisis, and within the last 10 months, that is, during his third term as president, the dollar has gone from 20 lira to 32 lira, and poverty and inflation have afflicted millions of Turkish citizens.
2. The results of the municipal elections and falling to the position of the second party in Turkey have practically challenged the legitimacy and credibility of the party.
Meanwhile, during the election process, 17 ministers of Erdoğan’s cabinet in Istanbul and Ankara, by making dozens of public visits, asked the people not to vote for the opposition. But none of these actions gave results and Akparty suffered the heaviest defeat in its 23-year history. Now we have to see to what extent the heavy defeat of the Justice and Development Party in the local elections will affect the process of political developments in Turkey.