Illegal arrest of Imamoglu; Türkiye likely to return to parliamentary system.
Azar Mahdavan: Political developments in Turkey, especially in connection with the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have attracted a lot of attention; at a time when Turkish society is calling for early elections and for Ekrem İmamoğlu to run for office, his arrest has not only raised questions about the state of human rights and democracy in Turkey, but also has significant political consequences. This action could affect the reaction of voters and indicate public dissatisfaction with the current state of the government.
It seems that the arrest of popular politicians in Turkey has become a tradition in the country’s politics. The imprisonment of Selahattin Demirtaş, the leader of the People’s Democratic Party, and now the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu practically raise doubts about the judicial process and the political use of judicial justice in society.
Ekrem İmamoğlu, who has been serving as the mayor of Istanbul since 2019 and an important member of the Republican People’s Party, is known as Erdogan’s most important rival. It should be noted that a mayor in Turkey has great political power, and if that person is the mayor of a metropolis, this power is doubled. The cancellation of Imamoglu’s academic degree and his subsequent arrest have caused a lot of noise in Turkey, to the point that the government has taken steps to filter WhatsApp messenger and prevent rallies in support of Imamoglu.
In this regard, and to examine the background and political consequences of Imamoglu’s arrest, Mehr reporter interviewed “Mustafa Kemal Erdemol”, a Turkish journalist and writer, the text of which is as follows:
What will be the political consequences of Imamoglu’s arrest as mayor and political rival of Erdogan?
The political consequences of this development will be influential, but what is most important is the reaction of voters to this event. The general opinion of the people is that Ekrem Imamoglu has been treated unfairly, and this feeling may also be reflected in the ballot boxes. A similar situation has occurred in the past. Imamoglu won the mayoral election, which he contested for the first time, by a narrow margin of 15,000 votes. However the AKP refused to accept this defeat and illegally held a second round of elections. In the second round, Imamoglu won by a margin of 800,000 votes. This shows that when the Turkish people see injustice, they react to it at the ballot box. The votes of the Republican People’s Party (the main opposition party to Erdogan’s government) have long increased significantly.
In the last municipal elections, in 2024, the AKP lost the metropolitan cities that were considered its political base. The reasons for these defeats are corruption and embezzlement in the government, the party’s failures in foreign policy, the high cost of living, and the problems caused by the one-man rule. All these factors have caused people to turn to the Republican People’s Party.
For this reason, the Republican People’s Party has repeatedly called for early elections. On the other hand, İmamoğlu has announced that he will run for president. Erdoğan cannot appear as a rival to İmamoğlu.
This situation has caused the AKP to commit an illegal act in front of the world. There is no lawlessness, because the leader of this party, Erdoğan, is the law himself. For example, İmamoğlu’s degree, which he received 35 years ago, was declared invalid, and the university president, who did not decide to revoke the degree, was forced to resign. Instead of the university president, the faculty decided to revoke the degree. This is a clear violation of rights and has greatly angered society.
The AKP has even lost the overwhelming majority of its voters. The AKP, led by Erdoğan, arrests not only its rivals but also all its opponents and keeps them in prison for years. He is bringing retroactive charges against some people, which is against the law, because the law cannot be applied retroactively. Imamoglu’s arrest was a serious political turning point in the country.
A pivot has been formed in Turkish politics that the Justice and Development Party cannot maintain its power. The ruling party of Turkey has lost its legitimacy. If Imamoglu is nominated despite all these problems, or someone else is nominated, he has a good chance of winning. In that case, the country will enter a new phase of returning to a parliamentary system, which could have the greatest possible political consequences.
Is it possible for the government to appoint a guardian for the Istanbul Municipality?
The Justice and Development Party government has been managing all institutions it sees as opposition, especially municipalities, by appointing guardians for years. Therefore, it can also appoint a guardian for the Istanbul Municipality.
This appointment of a guardian is a bit difficult for the ruling party and there are still strong reactions in the political and public community. If Erdogan appoints a guardian for the Istanbul Municipality, his goal is to implement the Canal Istanbul project; a project that will destroy Istanbul. The Turkish courts have prevented the realization of this project. Now the government can implement this project again through the municipality, which will be managed by a guardian.
Media close to the Justice and Development Party believe that we should not analyze the recent developments regarding Imamoglu as a political process because it is a security issue. What do you think? Isn’t Imamoglu’s arrest a political act?
The job of the pro-government media is to distort the government’s procedures. Considering that the charges against Imamoglu are not related to the municipality’s affairs and other charges have been raised, it is clear that this decision is complete.