PNN – Middle East Monitor believes that this war was supposed to be short and decisive, but in practice it has turned into a war of attrition, the kind of protracted conflict that, according to Israeli analysts and military commanders, Tel Aviv has always tried to avoid.
For the past four decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has based his policy on the belief that Iran is an existential threat to Israel and that the only way to confront it is military action.
The analysis states that Netanyahu declared in front of television cameras in Jerusalem that if Iran’s missile and nuclear programs are not stopped, it will be difficult to contain them; words that were in effect the beginning of a war for which he had been preparing for years.
Read more:
Iranian missile attacks on Tel Aviv… What’s up with Netanyahu?!
Middle East Monitor believes that this war was supposed to be short and decisive, but in practice it has turned into a war of attrition, the kind of protracted conflict that, according to Israeli analysts and military commanders, Tel Aviv has always tried to avoid.
Another part of this analysis points to the difference in approach between Washington and Tel Aviv. Rather than seeking a long war, US President Donald Trump would prefer to reach an agreement with Iran and avoid a widespread conflict in West Asia.
According to this analysis, Trump is not willing to send US ground forces to the region or enter a protracted war, and may distance himself from continuing the conflict after reaching some kind of agreement or declaring political victory; an issue that could put Israel in a more difficult position.
The Middle East Monitor also points to Iran’s military capabilities, writing: In addition to its conventional military power, this country has a network of allied forces in the region, as well as significant capabilities in the field of drones and asymmetric warfare; factors that can be decisive in wars of attrition.
The analysis states that such conditions could make the war long and costly for Israel; a war that may also increase domestic political and economic pressures.
According to the media outlet, the economic consequences of this conflict have also been quickly reflected in global markets; just a few days after the escalation of the conflict began, the price of oil reached more than $92 per barrel, representing an increase of about 28% in one week.
The analysis emphasizes that the closure or instability in the Strait of Hormuz could affect about 20 percent of global oil and gas supply, an issue that would affect not only fuel prices in the United States and Europe, but also economic growth in various countries around the world.
The Middle East Monitor concludes its report by saying that what was supposed to be Netanyahu’s strategic achievement may end up becoming one of the greatest political challenges of his time, as history is not usually kind to leaders who fail to distinguish between political obsession and ground realities.