Moscow’s three-stage warning to Baku on the Ukraine issue.
As the Ukrainian war has entered an erosive phase and the competition between regional and trans-regional powers over energy supply routes to Europe has intensified, the South Caucasus has become one of the new centers of geopolitical challenge and competition.
As an actor with a special geoeconomic position, the Republic of Azerbaijan has been able to consolidate its position in the European energy market in recent years by taking advantage of its rich energy resources and strategic transit routes.
However, the increase in Baku’s cooperation with Kiev in the field of energy, especially in the midst of the Ukrainian war, has provoked open and hidden reactions from Russia. In recent weeks, three important events have indicated Moscow’s change of tone towards Baku and sent a warning message to this southern neighbor:
1. Drone attacks on SOCAR Azerbaijan’s gas facilities in Ukraine.
2. Drone attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odessa.
3. Attack on the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Kiev.
Taken together, these three incidents paint a coherent picture of Russia’s alarmist strategy, one that can be analyzed from military-operational, energy-economic, and political-diplomatic perspectives.