Öcalan’s message for disarming the “PKK” and answers to 5 key questions.
On Thursday, February 27, 2025, Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), issued an open statement calling on the group’s members to disband and lay down their arms.
He made it clear that he would take on the historic responsibility for this call. The Turkish Kurdish leader’s order to end any violent struggle and move towards the realization of the political and cultural rights of the Kurdish people has provided the necessary basis for reducing some of Ankara’s security concerns and state investment in southeastern Turkey. At least 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict between Turkey and the PKK in recent decades, and it seems that continuing this trend would have exhausted the capabilities of the aforementioned actors.
Ocalan’s statement will directly and indirectly affect not only the Kurds of Turkey and Iraq but also groups based in Syria and the Iranian border strip. Accordingly, in the rest of this analytical report, we will try to answer the questions, ambiguities, and issues related to Abdullah Ocalan’s recent statement.
1. Who is Abdullah Ocalan, and why are his statements important?
Abdullah Ocalan, known among his supporters as “Sruk Apu”, has been known for years as a politician and old theorist of Pan-Kurdism. Amid the “Cold War”, in 1978, he founded the Kurdistan Workers’ Party under the influence of Marxist theories, and only a few years later, in 1984, he decided to start an armed struggle to achieve autonomy in Turkish Kurdistan. Shortly after, he established various branches of this group in Iraq, Syri,a and Iran, which, of course, were recognized as terrorist groups by the central governments of the mentioned countries.
His historic statement is important because it can change the course of Kurdish groups in the region or at least severely weaken their popular base. Of course, some analysts believe that this statement should not be viewed with an “optimistic eye” because Öcalan had made a similar request during the “Kurdish Opening” in 2012, but the PKK refused to surrender completely, and this time, as expected, the PKK Executive Committee accepted Öcalan’s request and unilaterally declared a ceasefire.
2. Why did the spiritual leader of the Kurds in Turkey give up the armed struggle?
The key point is that Öcalan, amid the geostrategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, thought that by abusing the space of the bipolar order, he could gain Moscow’s support and pave the way for the disintegration of one of the NATO members. Accordingly, many Kurdish groups in the 60s, 70s, and 80s decided to turn to the option of armed struggle and become the security subjects of the central governments instead of pursuing their natural rights through democratic institutions active in civil society.
Now, it seems that after years of armed struggle, Ocalan, considering the changes in the international and regional order, has seen any continuation of tension with Ankara as detrimental to the existence of the “PKK” and has decided to pave the way for the survival of this group through a political-civil struggle. Of course, another group believes that in the last years of his life he is trying to leave a legacy of “peace” and be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize!
3. What effect will Ocalan’s call for disarmament and dissolution have on the activities of Kurdish groups active in Iran and Syria?
The spiritual leader of the Kurds in Turkey has been in prison in Turkey since 1999. Accepting some kind of ceasefire between Ocalan and the neo-Ottoman leader of Turkey, while behind bars, represents a big gamble. Experience has shown that the Turkish president, although a man of maneuvering and bargaining, can never be trusted for a long-term agreement at historical junctures.
However, the statement issued by this political leader indicates a change in the policy governing the PKK group and a change in its direction shortly. It should not be forgotten that despite Öcalan’s high position among the middle leaders and supporters of Kurdish groups, not all of them trust Öcalan and even prefer to choose a different path from him.
The lines of disagreement between various Kurdish leaders and Öcalan or their avoidance of obeying the opinions of an imprisoned leader are visible. For example, Mazloum Abdi, the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while evaluating Öcalan’s message as “positive”, did not consider this statement to include the dissolution of the YPG and the laying down of arms by Kurdish groups. Abdi continued to call for the start of a peaceful process within Turkey to restore the rights of the Kurds and recognize the basic linguistic, cultural, and political rights of this people.
The SDF leader believes that the implementation of Öcalan’s statement will eliminate the excuse for the Turks to attack eastern Syria. Although no official statement has been issued by the PJAK terrorist group on this matter, Öcalan’s call will cause a split in the ranks of this separatist movement.
4. What impact did recent developments in the international and regional system have on the publication of Öcalan’s statement?
After Operation Storm al-Aqsa on October 7, 2023, the regional order was disrupted, and each of the actors tried to take steps toward maximizing national interests, reducing external threats, and ultimately increasing their position in political balances by reorganizing their relations with different governments and power blocs.