Possibility of Egypt’s conditional return to normal relations with the Israeli regime.
Egyptian sources told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that relations between Egypt and the Israeli regime have been moving towards “further improvement” in recent weeks, due to a series of “changes,” particularly the return of open diplomatic channels, which are expected to be activated next week.
According to these sources, Egypt has conditioned its renewed diplomatic engagement with the Israeli regime on the continuation of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the absence of any violation or return to war, as well as the opening of the Rafah crossing in the coming days. This is while some forecasts indicate that the crossing may open and begin operating on Sunday.
According to these sources, during the recent Sharm el-Sheik summit, the Egyptian presidency welcomed contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and participation in the advanced stages of the US plan as part of the broader negotiations on the “two-state solution.”
The sources also estimate that if the ceasefire continues, Cairo will appoint an ambassador to Tel Aviv, but his participation in the Egyptian president’s meetings with foreign officials will be postponed until further notice.
However, political sources in Cairo rule out the possibility of developing this diplomatic engagement before the 2026 Israeli elections, saying that Netanyahu’s cabinet is “not capable of making decisive decisions” on the issue of the “two-state solution” that Cairo is pursuing.
They also said that this development is also related to the issue of continuing to send aid to the Gaza Strip without hindrance, along with monitoring the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli regime from various areas of the strip. In this context, the withdrawal of Egyptian forces stationed along the border strip will coincide with the beginning of the withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the Philadelphia axis until a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is achieved.
However, an Egyptian military official told Al-Akhbar that the expected withdrawals would not return the situation to the conditions in accordance with the Camp David Accords and its annexes, but rather that the new lines would extend beyond the pre-Operation Al-Aqsa Storm situation. Cairo justified the change on the grounds that there were threats to Egypt’s national security from within the Gaza Strip, and that it had informed the Americans and Israelis.
The official added that Egypt stressed during the talks that the weapons in Gaza posed a clear threat to the security of Israel and Egypt, and that, therefore, the forces should not be withdrawn excessively. He clarified that the Americans understood the Egyptian army’s position and did not oppose it.
Although the economic routes between Cairo and Tel Aviv have not been significantly affected by the Gaza war, planned economic partnerships with private companies owned by Egyptian state institutions have been postponed for political reasons, according to these sources. These sources point out that if the ceasefire continues, these cooperations will be activated again within the framework of the effort to return the situation in Gaza to before Hamas ruled the Strip.
In this regard, Egypt is also in contact with the Israeli opposition parties; however, according to the election polls conducted and assessments from within Tel Aviv, these channels will not have an impact on the course of future developments.
However, Cairo believes that if a more moderate cabinet is formed in occupied Palestine, these channels can serve as a basis for future regional cooperation, especially with Turkey and Qatar.
Egypt also believes that if Netanyahu wins the upcoming elections and forms a coalition that will preserve his political survival, it will start a new negotiation path that, in some aspects, corresponds to Cairo’s views.