Southern Yemen crisis: Saudi-UAE confrontation and the threat of disintegration.
In recent months, Yemen’s southern and eastern provinces have become a new flashpoint for proxy tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The tensions, which stem from deep-rooted differences between the two countries over control of strategic areas and Yemen’s resources, have been accompanied by armed clashes between forces affiliated with both sides, disrupting the peace and stability of southern Yemen.
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council has launched military advances against forces affiliated with the resigned Yemeni government and the Riyadh-backed Presidential Council, angering Saudi Arabia.
The clashes have become more public in recent weeks and have spread to provinces such as Hadramaut, Shabwa and Al-Mahra. Southern Transitional Council forces have been able to gain control of parts of these areas, including the city of Sion and the desert oil fields bordering Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia has attempted to contain the Emirati influence with a massive reshuffle of its forces, its largest operation since 2015.
Riyadh has organized new forces and deployed them outside the formal structure of the resigned government to create a counterweight to the Emirati forces.
Yemeni sources emphasize that these tensions are not only military, but also political and economic. The sudden departure of the resigned government from Aden, coinciding with the visit of the Presidential Council officials to Riyadh, indicates the covert management of the conflict by the two countries.
Saudi-affiliated officials have described the Transitional Council’s moves as a “complete coup” against the legitimate government and have called for the immediate withdrawal of Emirati forces. In contrast, the Southern Transitional Council considers itself more influential and seeks autonomy or even independence for the south.
The roots of these differences go back to the two countries’ different goals. The UAE seeks to establish a subservient military government in southern Yemen through which it can dominate mineral resources and strategic positions and even pressure Saudi Arabia and Oman. This approach reflects Abu Dhabi’s broader competition with Riyadh in the Horn of Africa, North Africa, and the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia, however, insists on maintaining the apparent unity of Yemen under the resigned government to maintain its leadership role in the coalition. This competition has turned Yemen into a geopolitical chessboard with consequences that extend far beyond the country’s borders.
The worsening economic and livelihood situation in the occupied territories has also added to these tensions. The resigned government’s severe financial crisis, the collapse of economic indicators, and its complete dependence on limited foreign support have worsened the situation for ordinary citizens. Analysts predict that the continuation of these proxy conflicts will lead to a wider collapse in the south, further disrupting the exchange rate, public services, and security.